SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sun May 08 2022
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and/or wind gusts may occur this afternoon over
portions of the north-central Plains and north Texas, with the
potential persisting into tonight over the northern Plains.
...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast. A corridor of greater hail risk
late in the period may develop across parts of central into
northeastern South Dakota and perhaps adjacent parts of North
Dakota/Minnesota. Strong warm advection should promote numerous
elevated storms in a favorably sheared environment. At present,
enough storm interactions appear possible that the coverage of stout
hail cores may be limited.
..Wendt.. 05/08/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun May 08 2022/
...North-central Plains...
To the east of an amplifying upper trough over the Great Basin and
northern Intermountain West, increasingly prevalent cyclonic
upper-level flow will influence the northern/central Plains,
although a more appreciable strengthening of westerlies and onset of
height falls will not occur until late tonight. Lee-side
cyclogenesis will initially occur across northeast Colorado, with
subsequent development northeastward as a frontal wave across
western/northern Nebraska into South Dakota. Upper 50s/lower 60s F
surface dewpoints will advect north-northeastward across Nebraska,
and eventually southeast South Dakota late tonight.
Storm development is expected along/northwest of the
southwest/northeast-oriented boundary from northwest Nebraska into
South Dakota late this afternoon, and more so this evening into the
overnight from southwest to northeast across the region. Bouts of
large hail are possible, and a few severe-caliber wind gusts might
also occur, particularly in closer proximity to the boundary across
northwest/north-central Nebraska into south-central South Dakota
where a semi-organized cluster may evolve late tonight in the
presence of strengthening deep-tropospheric winds and moderate
elevated buoyancy.
Portions of the region may still warrant an upgrade to Slight Risk
pending greater confidence in severe-caliber storms tonight.
Farther south, the secondary triple point/warm front vicinity across
Kansas into southern Nebraska is otherwise likely to remain capped
and void of deep-convective development beneath a stout elevated
mixed layer.
...North Texas...
Another conditional-type scenario for localized strong/severe-storm
development exists across the region late this afternoon near the
dryline. If/where storms develop and sustain, a pulse-type large
hail threat could exist aside from the potential for severe-caliber
wind gusts. As compared to yesterday, the region today will be
influenced by modest-strength cyclonic westerlies, while hot
temperatures will contribute to weakening inhibition into peak
heating.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SQ08gg
