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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, May 8, 2022

SPC May 8, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun May 08 2022 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or wind gusts may occur this afternoon over portions of the north-central Plains and north Texas, with the potential persisting into tonight over the northern Plains. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. A corridor of greater hail risk late in the period may develop across parts of central into northeastern South Dakota and perhaps adjacent parts of North Dakota/Minnesota. Strong warm advection should promote numerous elevated storms in a favorably sheared environment. At present, enough storm interactions appear possible that the coverage of stout hail cores may be limited. ..Wendt.. 05/08/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun May 08 2022/ ...North-central Plains... To the east of an amplifying upper trough over the Great Basin and northern Intermountain West, increasingly prevalent cyclonic upper-level flow will influence the northern/central Plains, although a more appreciable strengthening of westerlies and onset of height falls will not occur until late tonight. Lee-side cyclogenesis will initially occur across northeast Colorado, with subsequent development northeastward as a frontal wave across western/northern Nebraska into South Dakota. Upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints will advect north-northeastward across Nebraska, and eventually southeast South Dakota late tonight. Storm development is expected along/northwest of the southwest/northeast-oriented boundary from northwest Nebraska into South Dakota late this afternoon, and more so this evening into the overnight from southwest to northeast across the region. Bouts of large hail are possible, and a few severe-caliber wind gusts might also occur, particularly in closer proximity to the boundary across northwest/north-central Nebraska into south-central South Dakota where a semi-organized cluster may evolve late tonight in the presence of strengthening deep-tropospheric winds and moderate elevated buoyancy. Portions of the region may still warrant an upgrade to Slight Risk pending greater confidence in severe-caliber storms tonight. Farther south, the secondary triple point/warm front vicinity across Kansas into southern Nebraska is otherwise likely to remain capped and void of deep-convective development beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. ...North Texas... Another conditional-type scenario for localized strong/severe-storm development exists across the region late this afternoon near the dryline. If/where storms develop and sustain, a pulse-type large hail threat could exist aside from the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. As compared to yesterday, the region today will be influenced by modest-strength cyclonic westerlies, while hot temperatures will contribute to weakening inhibition into peak heating. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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