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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, May 6, 2022

SPC May 6, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Fri May 06 2022 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm risk on Sunday appears minimal at this time across the CONUS. ...Discussion... Very little change in the upper flow field is anticipated for Sunday, as a low/trough remains quasi-stationary near the East Coast. Meanwhile, broad/high-amplitude cyclonic flow will remain in place across the entire western half of the country, and the adjacent eastern Pacific. At the surface, a baroclinic zone will likewise remain quasi-stationary, stretching from the north-central U.S. southwestward across the Desert Southwest. A frontal wave is forecast to shift out of the Rockies and then into the central Plains during the second half of the period, as a vort max embedded within southwesterly flow aloft shifts across the Southwest, toward the central high Plains. Showers and a few/embedded thunderstorms will occur across a large portion of the northwestern quarter of the country. Lighting -- more than sporadic/occasional flashes -- appears most likely across the Oregon vicinity as a compact vort max moves inland. Farther east, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will likely spread out of the northern High Plains and across the north-central states. However, despite strong flow aloft across this region, meager CAPE should limit severe potential, with risk appearing too low at this time to warrant MRGL risk introduction. Elsewhere across the Plains, northeastward advection of an EML will result in capping that is expected to remain sufficient to preclude thunderstorm development. ..Goss.. 05/06/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC