SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Fri May 06 2022
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm risk on Sunday appears minimal at this time
across the CONUS.
...Discussion...
Very little change in the upper flow field is anticipated for
Sunday, as a low/trough remains quasi-stationary near the East
Coast. Meanwhile, broad/high-amplitude cyclonic flow will remain in
place across the entire western half of the country, and the
adjacent eastern Pacific.
At the surface, a baroclinic zone will likewise remain
quasi-stationary, stretching from the north-central U.S.
southwestward across the Desert Southwest. A frontal wave is
forecast to shift out of the Rockies and then into the central
Plains during the second half of the period, as a vort max embedded
within southwesterly flow aloft shifts across the Southwest, toward
the central high Plains.
Showers and a few/embedded thunderstorms will occur across a large
portion of the northwestern quarter of the country. Lighting --
more than sporadic/occasional flashes -- appears most likely across
the Oregon vicinity as a compact vort max moves inland.
Farther east, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will likely
spread out of the northern High Plains and across the north-central
states. However, despite strong flow aloft across this region,
meager CAPE should limit severe potential, with risk appearing too
low at this time to warrant MRGL risk introduction.
Elsewhere across the Plains, northeastward advection of an EML will
result in capping that is expected to remain sufficient to preclude
thunderstorm development.
..Goss.. 05/06/2022
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