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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, May 5, 2022

SPC May 5, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu May 05 2022 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... The threat of scattered severe storms will persist through early evening across parts of eastern Texas through the Mid-South. Damaging winds, isolated tornadoes and large hail remain possible. Primary changes at 20Z were to reduce severe probabilities behind the cold front in Texas, and to expand the Slight Risk into Middle TN, south-central KY and northern AL. Also removed the small Slight Risk over eastern OK as the air mass continues to overturn with numerous storms. Isolated hail remains possible over eastern OK. For more information on the Ar/MS/TN area, see mesoscale discussions 661 and 662. And for the eastern OK area, mesoscale discussion 660. ..Jewell.. 05/05/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu May 05 2022/ ...Central and east TX to the Mid-South... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an intense mid-level shortwave trough over the central/southern High Plains. The leading edge of strong mid- to upper-level forcing for ascent is overspreading central/eastern OK late this morning. As the mid-level trough progresses east today/tonight, additional thunderstorm activity will result in an extensive area of thunderstorm clusters/bands from central TX northeast into the Mid South/MS Valley. Extensive cloud cover will likely delay/partially inhibit destabilization for parts of the Mid South. However, a rejuvenation of storms is expected with damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms this afternoon/early evening. Farther south ahead of a composite boundary over TX, a very moist airmass sampled by the 12z Corpus Christi, TX raob showed a 17 g/kg lowest 100 mb mean mixing ratio---supporting large buoyancy and thunderstorm activity. Mean flow oriented largely parallel to the boundary has and likely will continue to favor a linear band of strong to severe thunderstorms. As this activity evolves, a mix of linear convective clusters and perhaps an embedded supercell will likely evolve into a QLCS across east TX moving into the Arklatex this afternoon. A tornado/damaging gust hazard will probably accompany any bows/surges in the squall line. A risk for a couple of supercells or a severe storm cluster on the southern flank of the evolving squall line will pose a hail/wind and perhaps tornado risk. However, farther south, capping and weaker large-scale forcing for ascent will limit storm coverage/intensity. A gradual weakening in storm intensity is expected during the evening as storms move into southeast TX/southern LA and parts of southern MS late. ...Ozark Plateau vicinity... The aforementioned mid-level disturbance rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will continue east across OK today. Cloud breaks across eastern OK in combination to some modest diurnal heating and cooling mid-level temperatures, will lead to moderate destabilization by early afternoon. Ample mid- to high-level flow/shear will support updraft organization and the propensity for large hail growth with the stronger cores. Despite the presence of rich low-level moisture over a small part of southern OK ahead of the front (north of the northeast TX thunderstorm activity), low-level shear is forecast to remain weak/modest, thereby limiting the tornado risk. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC