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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, May 3, 2022

SPC May 3, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Tue May 03 2022 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... On Friday, the models are in agreement that an upper-level trough will move eastward across southeastern U.S., and that a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from east Texas eastward across much of the Gulf Coast states. Although large-scale ascent is expected to be minimal along this corridor, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop on the northern and western edges of the stronger instability where low-level convergence would be maximized. At this time, the models are not keying in on any specific area where the severe threat could warrant a 15 percent contour. On Saturday, the models are in better agreement, with a narrow corridor of moisture returning northward into the central Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible along the western edge and on the northern end of the stronger instability, in parts of central and eastern Nebraska Saturday evening. Forecast instability and deep-layer shear appear strong enough for a severe threat. But there is considerable spatial uncertainty and the magnitude of moisture return is questionable. For this reason, will hold off on a 15 percent contour at this time. Model differences increase on Sunday, with some solutions moving a shortwave trough across the central and northern Plains, while others maintain southwest mid-level flow in that same area. The models are in better agreement concerning moisture return, with a moist and unstable airmass in place by afternoon from northeast Oklahoma into north-central Missouri. Under that scenario, severe storm development would be likely along the western edge and at the north end of the stronger instability. But that would be dependent upon the timing of a shortwave trough. Due to the magnitude of instability that is forecast and potential for a shortwave trough to impact the region, a 15 percent contour is added for parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley for Sunday. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... On Monday, the models are again in reasonable agreement concerning moisture return in the central U.S., with the richest airmass of the season advecting northward into parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley. With a potential for strong instability, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F, and a shortwave trough in southwest mid-level flow, will add a 15 percent area also for Monday over parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The same potential is forecast on Tuesday by some models solutions, but due to increased uncertainty on Day 8 at the furthest out range, will hold off on adding a severe threat area. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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