Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Tue May 03 2022
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6...
On Friday, the models are in agreement that an upper-level trough
will move eastward across southeastern U.S., and that a moist and
unstable airmass will be in place from east Texas eastward across
much of the Gulf Coast states. Although large-scale ascent is
expected to be minimal along this corridor, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms may develop on the northern and western edges of the
stronger instability where low-level convergence would be maximized.
At this time, the models are not keying in on any specific area
where the severe threat could warrant a 15 percent contour.
On Saturday, the models are in better agreement, with a narrow
corridor of moisture returning northward into the central Plains.
Thunderstorms will be possible along the western edge and on the
northern end of the stronger instability, in parts of central and
eastern Nebraska Saturday evening. Forecast instability and
deep-layer shear appear strong enough for a severe threat. But there
is considerable spatial uncertainty and the magnitude of moisture
return is questionable. For this reason, will hold off on a 15
percent contour at this time.
Model differences increase on Sunday, with some solutions moving a
shortwave trough across the central and northern Plains, while
others maintain southwest mid-level flow in that same area. The
models are in better agreement concerning moisture return, with a
moist and unstable airmass in place by afternoon from northeast
Oklahoma into north-central Missouri. Under that scenario, severe
storm development would be likely along the western edge and at the
north end of the stronger instability. But that would be dependent
upon the timing of a shortwave trough. Due to the magnitude of
instability that is forecast and potential for a shortwave trough to
impact the region, a 15 percent contour is added for parts of the
central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley for Sunday.
...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8...
On Monday, the models are again in reasonable agreement concerning
moisture return in the central U.S., with the richest airmass of the
season advecting northward into parts of the lower to mid Missouri
Valley. With a potential for strong instability, surface dewpoints
in the lower to mid 70s F, and a shortwave trough in southwest
mid-level flow, will add a 15 percent area also for Monday over
parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The same potential is
forecast on Tuesday by some models solutions, but due to increased
uncertainty on Day 8 at the furthest out range, will hold off on
adding a severe threat area.
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