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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, May 3, 2022

SPC May 3, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Tue May 03 2022 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARKLATEX...OZARKS AND LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat will be likely on Thursday across parts of the southern Plains, Arklatex, Ozarks and lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes are expected. ...Southern Plains/Arklatex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... An upper-level low will move eastward across the central High Plains on Thursday, with cyclonic southwesterly mid-level flow remaining over the Arklatex, Ozarks and lower to mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the southern Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period along and ahead of the front from Oklahoma into Missouri. The storms should be elevated, moving northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley by midday. Further southwest, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place by early afternoon from parts of central Texas northeastward into eastern Arkansas, where surface dewpoints are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s F. Moderate instability will develop across much of the moist sector by midday. This along with increasing low-level convergence along and ahead of the front, will likely result in steady increase in convective coverage across the moist sector during the afternoon. Some model solutions suggest that a squall line will organize and move eastward across the Arklatex in the afternoon, reaching the lower Mississippi Valley by early evening. This possibility seems reasonable. A 50 to 70 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move into the base of the trough during the afternoon across the southern Plains and Arklatex. On the right side of this feature, moderate to strong deep-layer shear and strong lift, will create conditions favorable for severe storms. NAM forecast soundings at Shreveport and Little Rock at 21Z have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km from 35 to 45 knots. This will be sufficient for supercells with storms that can develop further to the east across the moist sector, and away from the squall line organizing to the west. Supercells that can develop will have a potential for hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes. However, winds are forecast to veer in the low-levels as the front approaches. This will be more favorable for the development of a linear MCS than for discrete storms, which would make wind damage as the greatest threat. Tornadoes will be possible with the stronger rotating cells embedded within the squall line. The wind damage potential is expected to ramp upward in the late afternoon and early evening as a severe linear MCS moves across northeast Texas and from central to eastern Arkansas into northern Louisiana. Further southwest into the southern Plains, the tail end of the squall line should be located somewhere in east Texas, where a wind damage potential will exist. Although moderate instability will be in place across the Texas Hill Country and along the Texas Coastal Plain, any cell that can initiate there should remain very isolated. ..Broyles.. 05/03/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC