SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Tue May 03 2022
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
KENTUCKY ACROSS OHIO AND INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible across
parts of the Ohio Valley this afternoon through early evening.
Isolated very large hail will be possible along a small portion of
the Rio Grande Valley this evening.
Little change was made to the previous outlook.
Storms will continue to expand eastward across Ohio and into western
Pennsylvania as southwest winds bring moisture northeastward into
eastern OH and western PA. Damaging gusts, marginal hail or a brief
tornado all remain possible. See tornado watch 175 for more
information.
Otherwise, a conditional slight risk remains in effect for parts of
the middle Rio Grande Valley, conditional on cells possibly crossing
the river later today with large hail threat.
..Jewell.. 05/03/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Tue May 03 2022/
...OH Valley...
Late morning showers/storms over OH will continue to move northeast
into the upper OH Valley through midday while weakening, as a
mid-level low/trough moves from the mid MS Valley to the southern
Great Lakes during the period. In the wake of this activity, the
airmass will gradually destabilize amidst some cloud breaks as a
plume of lower 60s F dewpoints advects north-northeastward into OH
ahead of a weak convectively aided mid-level wave/MCV located over
eastern IN. Model forecast soundings show 500-1000+ J/kg MLCAPE
across central/southern OH with enlarged hodographs. Scattered to
numerous storms will likely evolve during the afternoon with the
stronger storms being capable of hail/wind and some tornado risk,
especially with any sustained supercells before storms congeal and
grow upscale into one or more clusters.
...Rio Grande Valley in southwest TX...
Strong heating across northern Coahuila should contribute to
convection developing over the higher terrain west of Del Rio where
return flow remains moist. Model guidance continues to indicate a
couple of supercells are possible. These potential storms would
pose an attendant threat for significant large hail given large
buoyancy and rather favorable deep-layer shear.
...Elsewhere in TX...
Near a decaying MCS over the Sabine Valley, residual convective
outflow intersecting with a slowing cold front may support an
isolated severe storm or two this afternoon where strong heating
aids in locally eroding the cap. Despite weak low-level
shear, sufficient deep-layer shear will exist for a supercell
capable of isolated large hail and locally strong gusts.
Model guidance differs on the possibility for elevated storms to
develop over the TX South Plains vicinity overnight as robust warm
theta-e advection occurs well downstream of a shortwave trough
gradually shifting east from the Great Basin to the central/southern
Rockies. Other guidance suggest profiles will remain capped in this
region with highly elevated convection possible farther to the
northeast near the end of the period. While the threat appears
conditional, very steep mid-level lapse rates and ample
cloud-bearing shear would support a threat for severe hail.
...VA/NC...
Isolated severe storms will be possible along and west of a stalled
front draped across this region. Strong boundary-layer heating is
expected west/south front and this should allow surface parcels to
reach their convective temperatures by mid to late afternoon. A few
thunderstorms should develop along the higher terrain and near the
frontal zone. 25-30 kts of 500-mb westerly flow could allow a few
updrafts to briefly organize, mainly posing an isolated hail/wind
threat before weakening by this evening.
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