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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, May 3, 2022

SPC May 3, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Tue May 03 2022 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN KENTUCKY ACROSS OHIO AND INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley this afternoon through early evening. Isolated very large hail will be possible along a small portion of the Rio Grande Valley this evening. Little change was made to the previous outlook. Storms will continue to expand eastward across Ohio and into western Pennsylvania as southwest winds bring moisture northeastward into eastern OH and western PA. Damaging gusts, marginal hail or a brief tornado all remain possible. See tornado watch 175 for more information. Otherwise, a conditional slight risk remains in effect for parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, conditional on cells possibly crossing the river later today with large hail threat. ..Jewell.. 05/03/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Tue May 03 2022/ ...OH Valley... Late morning showers/storms over OH will continue to move northeast into the upper OH Valley through midday while weakening, as a mid-level low/trough moves from the mid MS Valley to the southern Great Lakes during the period. In the wake of this activity, the airmass will gradually destabilize amidst some cloud breaks as a plume of lower 60s F dewpoints advects north-northeastward into OH ahead of a weak convectively aided mid-level wave/MCV located over eastern IN. Model forecast soundings show 500-1000+ J/kg MLCAPE across central/southern OH with enlarged hodographs. Scattered to numerous storms will likely evolve during the afternoon with the stronger storms being capable of hail/wind and some tornado risk, especially with any sustained supercells before storms congeal and grow upscale into one or more clusters. ...Rio Grande Valley in southwest TX... Strong heating across northern Coahuila should contribute to convection developing over the higher terrain west of Del Rio where return flow remains moist. Model guidance continues to indicate a couple of supercells are possible. These potential storms would pose an attendant threat for significant large hail given large buoyancy and rather favorable deep-layer shear. ...Elsewhere in TX... Near a decaying MCS over the Sabine Valley, residual convective outflow intersecting with a slowing cold front may support an isolated severe storm or two this afternoon where strong heating aids in locally eroding the cap. Despite weak low-level shear, sufficient deep-layer shear will exist for a supercell capable of isolated large hail and locally strong gusts. Model guidance differs on the possibility for elevated storms to develop over the TX South Plains vicinity overnight as robust warm theta-e advection occurs well downstream of a shortwave trough gradually shifting east from the Great Basin to the central/southern Rockies. Other guidance suggest profiles will remain capped in this region with highly elevated convection possible farther to the northeast near the end of the period. While the threat appears conditional, very steep mid-level lapse rates and ample cloud-bearing shear would support a threat for severe hail. ...VA/NC... Isolated severe storms will be possible along and west of a stalled front draped across this region. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected west/south front and this should allow surface parcels to reach their convective temperatures by mid to late afternoon. A few thunderstorms should develop along the higher terrain and near the frontal zone. 25-30 kts of 500-mb westerly flow could allow a few updrafts to briefly organize, mainly posing an isolated hail/wind threat before weakening by this evening. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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