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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, May 4, 2022

SPC May 4, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Wed May 04 2022 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and hail are expected during the day on Friday from parts of the Gulf Coast states northward into the Tennessee Valley. An isolated wind damage threat could also develop in parts of the Ohio Valleys. ...Southeast/Tennessee Valley... An upper-level low will move across the mid Mississippi Valley on Friday, as a 55 to 65 knot mid-level jet translates eastward through the base of the system. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys. A morning convective complex is forecast to move eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast States. Moderate instability should develop ahead of this complex with surface-based thunderstorms forming and expanding in coverage around midday. The most favorable severe threat during the afternoon will be determined by the extent of cloud cover and surface heating along with locations of outflow boundaries from the morning storms. The models are currently forecasting moderate instability by early afternoon from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into eastern Alabama and northwest Georgia. In addition, model forecasts have 0-6 km shear along this corridor in the 40 to 50 knot range. This would support supercell development with a potential for wind damage, hail and an isolated tornado threat. But the favored mode is still uncertain. If multicell line segments are the favored mode, then wind damage would be the primary threat. There is a lot of uncertainty at this time due to the morning convective complex, which will determine the afternoon distribution of surface heating. The slight risk has been placed along the corridor where the models are in the best agreement concerning the early afternoon instability. ...Ohio Valley... An upper-level low will move eastward across the mid Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large-scale ascent associated with the low will gradually overspread the Ohio Valley during the morning, supporting a relatively large area of elevated convection. This will suppress surface-heating across parts of the Ohio Valley, with moderate instability developing in other areas not impacted by the morning storms. Wind shear will be strengthened by a 55 to 65 knot mid-level jet moving eastward through the mid Mississippi Valley. Due to the jet, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 40 to 50 knot range across much of the Ohio Valley. This will support isolated severe storm development. The favored mode is expected to be linear, and a few short to medium-sized line segments will be possible during the early to mid afternoon. Isolated wind damage may occur along the leading edge of the stronger line segments, with any threat persisting into the late afternoon when low-level lapse rates will be the steepest. ..Broyles.. 05/04/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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