SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Wed May 04 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and hail are expected
during the day on Friday from parts of the Gulf Coast states
northward into the Tennessee Valley. An isolated wind damage threat
could also develop in parts of the Ohio Valleys.
...Southeast/Tennessee Valley...
An upper-level low will move across the mid Mississippi Valley on
Friday, as a 55 to 65 knot mid-level jet translates eastward through
the base of the system. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward into the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys. A
morning convective complex is forecast to move eastward across the
lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast States. Moderate
instability should develop ahead of this complex with surface-based
thunderstorms forming and expanding in coverage around midday. The
most favorable severe threat during the afternoon will be determined
by the extent of cloud cover and surface heating along with
locations of outflow boundaries from the morning storms.
The models are currently forecasting moderate instability by early
afternoon from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into eastern
Alabama and northwest Georgia. In addition, model forecasts have 0-6
km shear along this corridor in the 40 to 50 knot range. This would
support supercell development with a potential for wind damage, hail
and an isolated tornado threat. But the favored mode is still
uncertain. If multicell line segments are the favored mode, then
wind damage would be the primary threat. There is a lot of
uncertainty at this time due to the morning convective complex,
which will determine the afternoon distribution of surface heating.
The slight risk has been placed along the corridor where the models
are in the best agreement concerning the early afternoon
instability.
...Ohio Valley...
An upper-level low will move eastward across the mid Mississippi
Valley on Friday. Large-scale ascent associated with the low will
gradually overspread the Ohio Valley during the morning, supporting
a relatively large area of elevated convection. This will suppress
surface-heating across parts of the Ohio Valley, with moderate
instability developing in other areas not impacted by the morning
storms. Wind shear will be strengthened by a 55 to 65 knot mid-level
jet moving eastward through the mid Mississippi Valley. Due to the
jet, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 40 to 50 knot range
across much of the Ohio Valley. This will support isolated severe
storm development. The favored mode is expected to be linear, and a
few short to medium-sized line segments will be possible during the
early to mid afternoon. Isolated wind damage may occur along the
leading edge of the stronger line segments, with any threat
persisting into the late afternoon when low-level lapse rates will
be the steepest.
..Broyles.. 05/04/2022
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