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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, May 2, 2022

SPC May 2, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Mon May 02 2022 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Intense severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of northern Oklahoma and far southern Kansas this afternoon and evening. Tornadoes and damaging winds, and large hail are all likely. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough is currently moving east across KS, with midlevel temperature gradient into far northern OK. A cold front is now surging southeast across the TX Panhandle and into western OK, with a dryline extending from southwest OK into northwest TX. Meanwhile, a warm front, reinforced by earlier precipitation, is currently draped from northwest into central and eastern OK. The cap is currently weak across the warm sector, and continued heating as well as warm advection should allow the warm front to mix northward through the evening. Shear is already favorable for supercells and tornadoes, with effective SRH in excess of 300 m2/s2 near the warm front. Storm mode will continue to play a pivotal role regarding tornado potential, with threat maximized with supercells that can either 1) keep up with the surging cold front or 2) develop ahead of the front and/or expected squall line. Even if storm mode becomes linear, strong instability and shear will favor QLCS tornadoes, especially with any segments of the line that can become more north-south oriented, rather than east-west (which may maximized undercutting outflow). Otherwise, significant damaging wind gusts are expected with storms that travel eastward across northern and northeast OK through evening. For more information, reference mesoscale discussion 620, 621, 622 and tornado watch 171. ..Jewell.. 05/02/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Mon May 02 2022/ ...KS/OK... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving compact upper trough moving across the Rockies, with an associated 60+ knot mid-level speed max tracking quickly into KS/OK. At the nose of this jet, a rather deep surface low is over southwest KS. Strong southerly low level winds are present in the warm sector of the low, but moisture return is complicated by multiple clusters of remnant convection and outflow boundaries. Rich moisture has returned to southern OK to the south of the outflow boundaries, and is still expected to make a rapid northward return this afternoon. Present indications are that multiple convective scenarios will play out in close areal/temporal proximity today over northwest OK. Initial storms may be along the bent-back portion of the low-level moisture plume over southwest KS. These storms will be in a very favorable low-level shear environment for supercell structures and possibly tornadoes, but early initiation (around 18z) may be before sufficient low-level destabilization can fully occur. Nevertheless, a few severe storms are expected in this regime that track east-northeastward into south-central KS this afternoon and evening. Just to the south and east of this setup, intense discrete supercells are expected to form by mid-afternoon along the dryline near or just south of the triple-point along the KS/OK border. These storms will have the greatest risk of significant tornadoes and very large hail, assuming they can persist ahead of the approaching cold front. This threat area is depicted in the 15% tornado risk area. Several CAM solutions suggest that convection will attempt to form farther south along the dryline this afternoon, but few are able to sustain this activity. While this risk of thunderstorm development is lower than farther north, it is non-zero and any storm that can mature would pose similar risks of significant severe weather including tornadoes. A strong cold front will surge into central OK by late afternoon, undercutting existing storms and becoming a focus for the development of a squall line. These storms will also pose a risk of rather widespread damaging wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes through the evening. Storms may persist well into the night into the Red River valley. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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