Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model guidance indicates the upper-air pattern will
transition from a trough in the West and ridge in the East to a
lower-amplitude/more-progressive flow pattern. A risk for severe
thunderstorms will probably exist on the southern fringe of the
stronger westerlies and where the composite boundary becomes
situated over the central/southern Great Plains into the mid MS
Valley on Tuesday (day 4). Large CAPE and adequate shear for
organized storm modes lend confidence in this scenario for severe.
By Wednesday (day 5), model variability increases in the
timing/placement of a disturbance currently projected to move across
the central U.S. as the pattern deamplifies. The latter part of the
extended period is characterized by lower potential for severe and
less predictability.
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