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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, May 28, 2022

SPC May 28, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NORTHEAST WY INTO SD/NE...AND FOR NORTHWEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts of 60-75 mph and large hail are expected late this afternoon and evening across parts of the northern and southern Plains. ...Northern and Southern Plains... No significant changes have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risks across parts of the northern and southern Plains. High-based convection is expected to increase across both regions late this afternoon into the early evening, with a threat of wind gusts of 60-75 mph, and perhaps some isolated hail. See the previous discussion below for more details, and MCD 947 for more information regarding the threat in the northern Great Plains region. ...New England... Generally disorganized convection continues across parts of New England this afternoon, within an environment characterized by MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and relatively weak low-level and deep-layer flow/shear. While locally gusty winds and/or small hail will be possible with the strongest storms, an organized severe threat is not expected, so the Marginal Risk has been dropped from this region. ..Dean.. 05/28/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022/ ...WY/SD/NE this afternoon into early tonight... Gradual amplification of a midlevel trough will continue through tonight over the Great Basin/Intermountain West. Within increasingly cyclonic flow aloft, an embedded shortwave trough now over eastern ID/northern UT will eject east-northeastward over WY late this afternoon and SD/NE tonight. Warm sector buoyancy is expected to be rather modest as a result of the richer moisture still being confined to the southern Plains, and there will be enough mid-high clouds to potentially slow surface heating/mixing across WY. The limited thermodynamic profiles, combined with only modestly strong wind profiles/vertical shear, may tend to limit storm organization/intensity and any resultant threat for more widespread severe storms. The more probable scenario appears to be for loosely organized clusters to storms to form this afternoon/evening near the surface lee cyclone/trough in WY. Convection will subsequently spread eastward/northeastward into SD as clusters and/or bowing segments, with additional storm development expected farther south into NE by this evening. Severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph will be the main threat, though isolated large hail may occur with any embedded supercell structures, especially farther east and later this evening as the storms encounter larger buoyancy. ...Southern Plains this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating and deep mixing will occur this afternoon along a sharpening dryline across west TX and the eastern TX Panhandle, south of a deepening lee cyclone across the central High Plains. Low-level moisture will increase during the day to the east of the dryline, resulting in MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg in the moist sector. As surface temperatures warm to 100-105 F, convective inhibition will diminish and deep inverted-v profiles will support at least widely scattered, high-based thunderstorm development along the dryline by late afternoon. Very large DCAPE (in excess of 1700 J/kg) and the moderate-strong buoyancy will support the potential for downbursts with severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph. Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for some organized/supercell storms, and convection could persist into southwest OK and northwest TX through late evening. However, increasingly large convective inhibition with eastward extent should result in storm weakening by 01-02z. ...New England this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today across southern New England, along a weak cold front and in advance of a midlevel trough moving eastward over PA/NY. Relatively moist profiles and substantial cloud cover will continue to limit lapse rates/buoyancy across southern New England, and vertical shear will weaken from west-to-east during the day as the midlevel trough moves overhead. Though isolated/minor wind damage and small hail cannot be ruled out, the scenario is not favorable for any persistent/organized threat for severe storms. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC