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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, May 28, 2022

SPC May 28, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast from parts of the Upper Midwest southward into the central Great Plains on Monday and Monday night. Tornadoes, perhaps a few strong tornadoes, large to giant hail, and severe gusts are possible. ...Upper Midwest into the central Great Plains... A potent mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of a larger-scale trough --centered over the Great Basin-- from southeast CO northeastward to northern MN while evolving into a mid-level low by daybreak Tuesday. An associated 500 mb speed max will intensify during the day with 100 kt southwesterly flow progged over eastern Nebraska by the late afternoon. A cyclone will deepen as it moves from northern KS north-northeastward into eastern SD by mid evening before occluding. A dryline will extend south-southwestward from the lower to mid MO Valley into central KS and near the TX Panhandle/OK border. Isolated elevated thunderstorms are possible early Monday morning from remnant storms on the nose of a strong LLJ in the SD/NE/IA/MN region. This activity will likely dissipate during the morning as strong southerly flow advects richer low-level moisture northward into the Upper Midwest by midday. Model guidance indicates mid to upper 60s dewpoints from the Upper Midwest southward into IA. Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching disturbance will likely lead to scattered storms initiating by the early to mid afternoon northeast of the northeastward-developing cyclone. Enlarged hodographs and strong shear through a deep layer will favor supercells, especially in the eastern Dakotas/western MN area during the afternoon. Tornadoes and large hail are possible with the more intense supercells. A few of the tornadoes may be strong given 300+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. Additional storms are forecast to develop by the early evening across southern MN into IA with severe gusts becoming increasingly probable, in additional to a lingering hail and perhaps tornado risk. Farther south along the dryline, a capping inversion will weaken by the mid-late afternoon amidst a very unstable airmass (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). Once the cap is breached, rapid supercell development is expected on the southern flank of a cluster of storms from southeastern NE into central KS. Large to giant hail is possible initially, and as the low-level flow increases during the 23-01z period, the risk for a tornado will correspondingly increase along with the risk for a strong tornado. Storms will probably consolidate during the evening as 850 mb flow increases and the risk for a tornado will gradually lessen by mid-late evening as the main threats transition to primarily a wind/hail threat into the overnight. ..Smith.. 05/28/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)