SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN IOWA...AND FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast from parts of the Upper
Midwest southward into the central Great Plains on Monday and Monday
night. Tornadoes, perhaps a few strong tornadoes, large to giant
hail, and severe gusts are possible.
...Upper Midwest into the central Great Plains...
A potent mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of a
larger-scale trough --centered over the Great Basin-- from southeast
CO northeastward to northern MN while evolving into a mid-level low
by daybreak Tuesday. An associated 500 mb speed max will intensify
during the day with 100 kt southwesterly flow progged over eastern
Nebraska by the late afternoon. A cyclone will deepen as it moves
from northern KS north-northeastward into eastern SD by mid evening
before occluding. A dryline will extend south-southwestward from
the lower to mid MO Valley into central KS and near the TX
Panhandle/OK border.
Isolated elevated thunderstorms are possible early Monday morning
from remnant storms on the nose of a strong LLJ in the SD/NE/IA/MN
region. This activity will likely dissipate during the morning as
strong southerly flow advects richer low-level moisture northward
into the Upper Midwest by midday. Model guidance indicates mid to
upper 60s dewpoints from the Upper Midwest southward into IA.
Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching disturbance will
likely lead to scattered storms initiating by the early to mid
afternoon northeast of the northeastward-developing cyclone.
Enlarged hodographs and strong shear through a deep layer will favor
supercells, especially in the eastern Dakotas/western MN area during
the afternoon. Tornadoes and large hail are possible with the more
intense supercells. A few of the tornadoes may be strong given 300+
m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. Additional storms are forecast to develop by the
early evening across southern MN into IA with severe gusts becoming
increasingly probable, in additional to a lingering hail and perhaps
tornado risk.
Farther south along the dryline, a capping inversion will weaken by
the mid-late afternoon amidst a very unstable airmass (3000-4000
J/kg MLCAPE). Once the cap is breached, rapid supercell development
is expected on the southern flank of a cluster of storms from
southeastern NE into central KS. Large to giant hail is possible
initially, and as the low-level flow increases during the 23-01z
period, the risk for a tornado will correspondingly increase along
with the risk for a strong tornado. Storms will probably
consolidate during the evening as 850 mb flow increases and the risk
for a tornado will gradually lessen by mid-late evening as the main
threats transition to primarily a wind/hail threat into the
overnight.
..Smith.. 05/28/2022
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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