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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, May 27, 2022

SPC May 27, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two remain possible this afternoon across parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. Thunderstorms may produce severe gusts this afternoon into early evening over portions of the northern High Plains. ...20Z Update... Have reconfigured the Slight Risk across NC into the Mid-Atlantic. A small area of 15% severe wind probabilities have been maintained ahead of a line moving quickly northeastward across far eastern PA into NJ and vicinity. Current expectations are for this convection to gradually weaken as it moves into southern NY and New England and encounters a less unstable airmass. But, it may still pose a threat for isolated strong/gusty winds in the short term. See Mesoscale Discussion 939 for more details. A separate Slight Risk has been maintained from portions of central NC into southern/central VA. Recent observational and satellite trends show attempts at destabilization in the wake of the morning convection across this area. Deep-layer shear associated with the upper trough to the west remains fairly strong, around 40-50 kt. Some recent high-resolution model guidance suggests that as MLCAPE increases into the 1000-1500 J/kg range over the next few hours, thunderstorms may intensify ahead of a moisture gradient noted in surface observations over western/central NC. Even with a predominately meridional component to the deep-layer shear, enough speed shear should be present for organized updrafts, with multicells and perhaps a couple of supercells possible. Damaging winds will probably be the main threat if convection can strengthen, although a brief tornado or two and some hail also remain a possibility. No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across parts of WY/SD. ..Gleason.. 05/27/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022/ ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... A broken line of storms has persisted since early this morning, with new development east of the band in the destabilizing warm sector where surface temperatures have warmed into the 78-82 F range with dewpoints near 70 F. Vertical shear is sufficient for organized line segments or rotating cells ahead of (and within) the band, with attendant threats for occasional damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. ...Southeast OH into western VA and central NC this afternoon... Additional storm development may occur farther west this afternoon, immediately in advance of the midlevel trough, and west of this morning/ongoing convection. Buoyancy will be weaker compared to areas farther east, and low-level shear will be relatively weak, which suggests that isolated damaging winds will be the main threat this afternoon. ...Northeast WY/western SD this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains by this afternoon/evening. High-based supercell development is expected this afternoon in the Slight risk area, in a deeply mixed environment with some increase in midlevel flow. As such, the primary threat with these storms will be severe outflow gusts later this afternoon into this evening. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC