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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, May 27, 2022

SPC May 27, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Memorial Day, Monday (day 4), as a large-scale trough remains centered over the central Rockies, with a belt of very strong cyclonically curved flow extending through the base of the trough over the southern Rockies and into the central Great Plains/Upper Midwest. A moisture-rich airmass will become moderately to extremely unstable from the central Great Plains northward into the Upper Midwest. Supercells capable of hail/tornadoes are possible, especially along/east of the dryline and perhaps near an occluding surface cyclone over the Dakotas. Significant severe gusts will also be possible with an MCS potentially evolving after dark over the central Great Plains. By Tuesday (day 5), uncertainties associated with Monday's thunderstorm activity coupled with some model spread result in predictability concerns. Nonetheless, severe potential could extend from parts of the southern High Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes. Medium-range guidance exhibits larger spread during the mid to late part of the extended range as the primary belt of westerlies weakens and becomes less predictable. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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