Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Memorial Day, Monday (day 4),
as a large-scale trough remains centered over the central Rockies,
with a belt of very strong cyclonically curved flow extending
through the base of the trough over the southern Rockies and into
the central Great Plains/Upper Midwest. A moisture-rich airmass
will become moderately to extremely unstable from the central Great
Plains northward into the Upper Midwest. Supercells capable of
hail/tornadoes are possible, especially along/east of the dryline
and perhaps near an occluding surface cyclone over the Dakotas.
Significant severe gusts will also be possible with an MCS
potentially evolving after dark over the central Great Plains.
By Tuesday (day 5), uncertainties associated with Monday's
thunderstorm activity coupled with some model spread result in
predictability concerns. Nonetheless, severe potential could extend
from parts of the southern High Plains northeastward into the
western Great Lakes.
Medium-range guidance exhibits larger spread during the mid to late
part of the extended range as the primary belt of westerlies weakens
and becomes less predictable.
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