SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL
NEBRASKA NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely over Nebraska
northeastward into Minnesota on Sunday and Sunday night.
Significant severe weather including very large hail and
hurricane-force gusts are possible with the strongest storms.
Several tornadoes are also possible.
...Synopsis...
The exit region of a powerful, cyclonically curved upper jet is
forecast to overspread the central High Plains into the mid MO
Valley during the period as a large-scale mid-level trough
encompasses the West. A mid-level anticyclone will reside over the
Carolinas. In the low levels, a surface front perhaps augmented by
convection is forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest
southwestward to a triple point near the northwest KS/NE border. A
dryline will extend southward into the southern Great Plains.
...Central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A strong to severe thunderstorm cluster may be ongoing early Sunday
morning over parts of the eastern Dakotas where strong 850 mb
theta-e advection is forecast. Isolated hail/wind would be the
primary threats with this elevated activity. Farther south, strong
southerly flow will aid in moisture transport northward into the mid
MO Valley and Upper Midwest. Strong heating, contributing to
evapotranspiration beneath a stout capping inversion associated with
an elevated mixed layer, will yield a very unstable airmass
(3000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE) over parts of NE northeastward into adjacent
SD/IA/MN. Forecast soundings show some low-level veering and
strengthening of winds with height, strongly supporting supercells
with initial storm development during the late afternoon/early
evening. Large to very large hail is likely with the more intense
supercells. Tornadoes are also possible, especially in warm-sector
areas early on where temperature-dewpoint depressions are not too
large (less than 20 deg F). An evolution towards clusters is
expected during the evening as a central Great Plains LLJ
intensifies. A lingering threat for hail/wind will probably
continue through the evening into the overnight.
..Smith.. 05/27/2022
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SR8qbg
