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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, May 27, 2022

SPC May 27, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely over Nebraska northeastward into Minnesota on Sunday and Sunday night. Significant severe weather including very large hail and hurricane-force gusts are possible with the strongest storms. Several tornadoes are also possible. ...Synopsis... The exit region of a powerful, cyclonically curved upper jet is forecast to overspread the central High Plains into the mid MO Valley during the period as a large-scale mid-level trough encompasses the West. A mid-level anticyclone will reside over the Carolinas. In the low levels, a surface front perhaps augmented by convection is forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest southwestward to a triple point near the northwest KS/NE border. A dryline will extend southward into the southern Great Plains. ...Central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest... A strong to severe thunderstorm cluster may be ongoing early Sunday morning over parts of the eastern Dakotas where strong 850 mb theta-e advection is forecast. Isolated hail/wind would be the primary threats with this elevated activity. Farther south, strong southerly flow will aid in moisture transport northward into the mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest. Strong heating, contributing to evapotranspiration beneath a stout capping inversion associated with an elevated mixed layer, will yield a very unstable airmass (3000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE) over parts of NE northeastward into adjacent SD/IA/MN. Forecast soundings show some low-level veering and strengthening of winds with height, strongly supporting supercells with initial storm development during the late afternoon/early evening. Large to very large hail is likely with the more intense supercells. Tornadoes are also possible, especially in warm-sector areas early on where temperature-dewpoint depressions are not too large (less than 20 deg F). An evolution towards clusters is expected during the evening as a central Great Plains LLJ intensifies. A lingering threat for hail/wind will probably continue through the evening into the overnight. ..Smith.. 05/27/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)