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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, May 26, 2022

SPC May 26, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...AND INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible over parts of the inland Northwest, and from the Midwest/Ohio Valley region to the east-central Gulf Coast states and southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... An arcing band of low-topped thunderstorms is present from far eastern IA into parts of IL. This convection is occurring in close proximity to an upper low centered over MO/AR. An 18Z sounding from ILX indicates about 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is available, along with a mainly southerly wind profile through the troposphere. Around 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear should continue to foster modest updraft organization, with both marginally severe hail and isolated damaging winds remaining possible as thunderstorms spread northward this afternoon. A somewhat separate band of convection is ongoing from western/central KY into middle TN. The airmass ahead of this activity is only weakly unstable given persistent cloudiness and earlier showers and thunderstorms, with an 18Z sounding from ILN showing less than 250 J/kg of MLCAPE present. It remains unclear whether the broken line or small clusters ahead of it will strengthen this afternoon as they move east-northeastward given the limited instability and heating downstream. If they can strengthen, then damaging winds would be the main threat given the mainly linear mode. Enough low-level shear is also present per recent VWPs from KOHX/KILN (around 100-150 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH) to support some low-level rotation and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Severe probabilities have been reduced across much of AL, western GA, and the FL Panhandle. Transient low-level circulations offshore have generally weakened as they approach land. With stronger low-level flow shifting into the OH Valley, and limited instability inland owing to widespread showers/precipitation, the prospect for damaging winds and a brief tornado across these areas should remain fairly low. Slightly better prospects for surface-based thunderstorms should exist this afternoon and early evening from portions of central/eastern GA into upstate SC. Ongoing bands of convection may pose a threat for strong to locally damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado as they spread northeastward over the next few hours. See Mesoscale Discussion 926 for more details. No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across parts of the interior Pacific Northwest. ..Gleason.. 05/26/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022/ ...IL/IN... A deep upper low will track slowly northeastward across MO today. The main surface cold front associated with this low extends roughly along the MS River from northeast MO into southern IL. Considerable low-level moisture is present ahead of the front across parts of IL/IN, where relatively strong daytime heating will take place. Given the cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates, scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon and track northward. The strongest cells will pose a risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. Please refer to MCD #923 for more details. ...KY/TN into OH... The mid-level jet max associated with the aforementioned upper low extends from AR into KY/TN. Heating will be slow in the area along the cold front over middle TN and central KY, but dewpoints in the mid 60s and temperatures slowly warming through the 70s will yield sufficient CAPE for thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. Relatively strong low and deep layer shear profiles will promote organized storm structures including bowing structures and supercells. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat, along with a few tornadoes. This activity will move into eastern KY and southern OH this evening before encountering a more stable air mass and weakening. ...AL/GA/FL... Isolated supercells have been occurring off the AL/FL coast this morning. Other storms are expected through the day along/ahead of the cold front over western AL. Extensive cloud cover across the region will limit heating/destabilization. Nevertheless, the strongest cells in this area will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado. ...OR/ID... A progressive shortwave trough is approaching the OR coast. Lift ahead of this trough, coupled with full sunshine and surface dewpoints in the 40s to lower 50s will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms from northeast OR into ID. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts may occur in the strongest cells late this afternoon and evening. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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