SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for
the north-central Great Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Large
hail and severe gusts are the primary severe hazards.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough initially over the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic states
will exit the East Coast by early evening before moving into the
Canadian maritime provinces. A flattened upstream mid-level ridge
is forecast over the central U.S. while a large-scale trough moves
into the Interior West.
...North-central Great Plains/Upper Midwest...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will feature a series of impulses
moving northeast from the north-central Rockies into the Upper
Midwest. A lee trough over the High Plains will invoke southerly
low-level flow and thereby aid in transporting a gradual increase in
moisture northward from the southern Great Plains into the Dakotas
during the day. A strong EML and associated capping inversion will
likely limit thunderstorm activity until the late afternoon when
CINH is substantially reduced. It seems plausible isolated
thunderstorms will develop at least initially near the Black Hills
and perhaps along the lee trough/dryline and spread eastward into SD
during the early evening. Models hint at a weak mid-level
disturbance moving east-northeastward into western SD/NE by early
evening. An intensifying LLJ over the central Great Plains will
develop after dark. Strengthening WAA/isentropic lift may lead to a
cluster or MCS developing near the terminus of the LLJ during the
evening into the overnight over parts of the mid MO Valley. Large
hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats with this
activity.
...New England...
Diurnal heating amidst lower 60s surface dewpoints will likely yield
250-1000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon. A frontal segment will
move east across the region during the afternoon and provide a focus
for isolated-scattered thunderstorm development. A couple of
locally intense multicells may yield wind damage or marginally
severe hail for a few hours before diminishing.
..Smith.. 05/26/2022
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