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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, May 26, 2022

SPC May 26, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN NEBRASKA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible for the north-central Great Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary severe hazards. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough initially over the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic states will exit the East Coast by early evening before moving into the Canadian maritime provinces. A flattened upstream mid-level ridge is forecast over the central U.S. while a large-scale trough moves into the Interior West. ...North-central Great Plains/Upper Midwest... Southwesterly mid-level flow will feature a series of impulses moving northeast from the north-central Rockies into the Upper Midwest. A lee trough over the High Plains will invoke southerly low-level flow and thereby aid in transporting a gradual increase in moisture northward from the southern Great Plains into the Dakotas during the day. A strong EML and associated capping inversion will likely limit thunderstorm activity until the late afternoon when CINH is substantially reduced. It seems plausible isolated thunderstorms will develop at least initially near the Black Hills and perhaps along the lee trough/dryline and spread eastward into SD during the early evening. Models hint at a weak mid-level disturbance moving east-northeastward into western SD/NE by early evening. An intensifying LLJ over the central Great Plains will develop after dark. Strengthening WAA/isentropic lift may lead to a cluster or MCS developing near the terminus of the LLJ during the evening into the overnight over parts of the mid MO Valley. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats with this activity. ...New England... Diurnal heating amidst lower 60s surface dewpoints will likely yield 250-1000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon. A frontal segment will move east across the region during the afternoon and provide a focus for isolated-scattered thunderstorm development. A couple of locally intense multicells may yield wind damage or marginally severe hail for a few hours before diminishing. ..Smith.. 05/26/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC