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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, May 23, 2022

SPC May 23, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALSO FROM EASTERN GA INTO PARTS OF NC/SC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado or two possible. Isolated to scattered damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes may occur across parts of the Southeast. Thunderstorms with small or marginally severe hail may affect North Dakota. ...Southeast... A 5% tornado area has been added from upstate SC into western/central NC, where low-topped supercell development is possible within a gradually destabilizing and favorably sheared environment. A 15% area has been added for a somewhat larger region from eastern GA into central NC, where steep low-level lapse rates will support a damaging wind risk as storm clusters move across the region. These changes have resulted in a categorical upgrade to Slight Risk. In conjunction with these changes, the Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly northward into far southern VA. A 5% hail area has also been added from southeast GA into parts of NC/SC, where somewhat greater buoyancy may support a marginal hail risk. See MCD 883 for more information and the previous discussion below for more information. ...Eastern NM into TX/southern OK... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected late this afternoon into early evening across parts of NM and west TX. One or more MCSs may develop tonight and spread eastward into a larger portion of central/south TX into southwest OK. The Slight Risk has been extended northward across the TX Panhandle based on the latest guidance. See the previous discussion below and MCD 884 for more details. ...North Dakota... No changes to the Marginal Risk in this area, see the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 05/23/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022/ ...Eastern NM/West TX... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough over the Rockies. Southerly/southeasterly low-level winds are strengthening across parts of TX and eastern NM in advance of this trough, helping to transport 50s and 60s surface dewpoints northwestward. This, along with pockets of strong afternoon heating, will yield MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg and scattered thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be favorable for a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. This threat will persist through the evening as storms track eastward toward western OK. ...South TX... Clusters of thunderstorms in the Big Bend region and over northern Mexico will likely persist in some form through the day, and eventually organize into an MCS later this afternoon. Several 12z CAM solutions suggest this activity will move into south TX by early evening and track toward the Gulf coast after dark. If this scenario occurs, damaging winds would be possible across this corridor. ...SC/NC... A warm-core low is depicted in radar loops over northwest GA. A band of convection loosely associated with this system is tracking northeastward across SC. Considerable cloud cover ahead of these storms will likely limit the coverage/intensity of severe reports. Nevertheless, a few strong/damaging wind gusts are expected. Please refer to MCD #879 for further details. ...GA/SC... Closer to the circulation, visible satellite imagery shows thinning clouds over central GA, which may help to warm/destabilize air in the southeast quadrant of the low. Backed surface winds and ample moisture, combined with mesoscale lift associated with the low, may result in a few organized/supercell storms later today over northeast GA or upstate SC. If these storms can form and persist, vertical shear profiles would support some risk of a tornado or two. ...ND... Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a weak surface boundary across ND. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will promote the risk of small to marginally severe hail with the more intense cells. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC