SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALSO FROM EASTERN GA INTO PARTS OF NC/SC...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight
across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail, severe wind
gusts, and a tornado or two possible. Isolated to scattered
damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes may occur across parts of
the Southeast. Thunderstorms with small or marginally severe hail
may affect North Dakota.
...Southeast...
A 5% tornado area has been added from upstate SC into
western/central NC, where low-topped supercell development is
possible within a gradually destabilizing and favorably sheared
environment. A 15% area has been added for a somewhat larger region
from eastern GA into central NC, where steep low-level lapse rates
will support a damaging wind risk as storm clusters move across the
region. These changes have resulted in a categorical upgrade to
Slight Risk. In conjunction with these changes, the Marginal Risk
has been expanded slightly northward into far southern VA. A 5% hail
area has also been added from southeast GA into parts of NC/SC,
where somewhat greater buoyancy may support a marginal hail risk.
See MCD 883 for more information and the previous discussion below
for more information.
...Eastern NM into TX/southern OK...
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected
late this afternoon into early evening across parts of NM and west
TX. One or more MCSs may develop tonight and spread eastward into a
larger portion of central/south TX into southwest OK. The Slight
Risk has been extended northward across the TX Panhandle based on
the latest guidance. See the previous discussion below and MCD 884
for more details.
...North Dakota...
No changes to the Marginal Risk in this area, see the previous
discussion below for more details.
..Dean.. 05/23/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022/
...Eastern NM/West TX...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough over the
Rockies. Southerly/southeasterly low-level winds are strengthening
across parts of TX and eastern NM in advance of this trough, helping
to transport 50s and 60s surface dewpoints northwestward. This,
along with pockets of strong afternoon heating, will yield MLCAPE
values of 1000-2000 J/kg and scattered thunderstorm development.
Vertical shear will be favorable for a few supercells capable of
large hail and damaging winds. This threat will persist through the
evening as storms track eastward toward western OK.
...South TX...
Clusters of thunderstorms in the Big Bend region and over northern
Mexico will likely persist in some form through the day, and
eventually organize into an MCS later this afternoon. Several 12z
CAM solutions suggest this activity will move into south TX by early
evening and track toward the Gulf coast after dark. If this
scenario occurs, damaging winds would be possible across this
corridor.
...SC/NC...
A warm-core low is depicted in radar loops over northwest GA. A
band of convection loosely associated with this system is tracking
northeastward across SC. Considerable cloud cover ahead of these
storms will likely limit the coverage/intensity of severe reports.
Nevertheless, a few strong/damaging wind gusts are expected. Please
refer to MCD #879 for further details.
...GA/SC...
Closer to the circulation, visible satellite imagery shows thinning
clouds over central GA, which may help to warm/destabilize air in
the southeast quadrant of the low. Backed surface winds and ample
moisture, combined with mesoscale lift associated with the low, may
result in a few organized/supercell storms later today over
northeast GA or upstate SC. If these storms can form and persist,
vertical shear profiles would support some risk of a tornado or two.
...ND...
Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along a weak surface boundary across ND. Cold temperatures
aloft and steep lapse rates will promote the risk of small to
marginally severe hail with the more intense cells.
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