SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Numerous thunderstorms are expected from west-central Texas into the
ArkLaMiss region this afternoon through tonight. Large to very large
hail, scattered to numerous damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will
all be possible.
...20Z Update...
The Enhanced Risk and corresponding greater severe hail and wind
probabilities have been expanded westward to include more of west
TX. Multiple supercells will likely develop this afternoon and early
evening along a stalled front across this region, with the most
favored area near the front/dryline intersection. Very large hail
appears possible with this initial supercell development, and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes. With time, this activity is expected
to develop into a squall line with a greater threat for
severe/damaging winds into central/east TX this evening and tonight.
Additional convection with both a large hail and damaging wind
threat should spread eastward from eastern NM across parts of
northwest/west TX this afternoon and evening. For more information
on the short-term severe threat across parts of TX, see Mesoscale
Discussion 900.
Otherwise, generally minor changes have been made to a couple of
areas on the periphery of the severe threat based on observational
trends and short-term guidance.
..Gleason.. 05/24/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022/
...TX...
Morning satellite imagery shows an upper low over southeast CO, with
a moderately strong mid-level jet extending across NM into west TX.
Widespread thunderstorms have been affecting parts of OK and north
TX this morning, and have resulted in a pronounced outflow boundary
from near MAF-MWL-DUA. Strong heating and destabilization will occur
this afternoon to the south of the boundary, yielding MLCAPE values
of 2500+ J/kg. This will set the stage for active convection this
evening over much of TX.
Storms are expected to develop in the mid-afternoon near the outflow
boundary/dryline triple-point near SJT. These storms will likely be
supercellular with a potential for very large hail and perhaps a
tornado. Other storms will form along/north of the outflow boundary
near the NM/TX border where strong heating is expected. All of
these storms will progress eastward through the early evening and
slowly congeal into a large MCS. It appears likely that a bowing
complex will eventually move across much of central TX with a
potential for scattered damaging wind gusts, hail, and isolated
tornadoes.
...Gulf Coast States...
A very moist and potentially unstable air mass is present today from
southeast TX into much of LA/MS/AL/GA. 12z model guidance suggest
that several clusters of thunderstorms will move across this region
this afternoon and evening, beneath modest southwesterly mid level
winds and relatively cool temperatures aloft. It appears at this
time that these storms will be relatively disorganized. However,
isolated strong/damaging wind gusts are expected with the more
intense cores through the afternoon and early evening.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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