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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, May 24, 2022

SPC May 24, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous thunderstorms are expected from west-central Texas into the ArkLaMiss region this afternoon through tonight. Large to very large hail, scattered to numerous damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will all be possible. ...20Z Update... The Enhanced Risk and corresponding greater severe hail and wind probabilities have been expanded westward to include more of west TX. Multiple supercells will likely develop this afternoon and early evening along a stalled front across this region, with the most favored area near the front/dryline intersection. Very large hail appears possible with this initial supercell development, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. With time, this activity is expected to develop into a squall line with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds into central/east TX this evening and tonight. Additional convection with both a large hail and damaging wind threat should spread eastward from eastern NM across parts of northwest/west TX this afternoon and evening. For more information on the short-term severe threat across parts of TX, see Mesoscale Discussion 900. Otherwise, generally minor changes have been made to a couple of areas on the periphery of the severe threat based on observational trends and short-term guidance. ..Gleason.. 05/24/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022/ ...TX... Morning satellite imagery shows an upper low over southeast CO, with a moderately strong mid-level jet extending across NM into west TX. Widespread thunderstorms have been affecting parts of OK and north TX this morning, and have resulted in a pronounced outflow boundary from near MAF-MWL-DUA. Strong heating and destabilization will occur this afternoon to the south of the boundary, yielding MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. This will set the stage for active convection this evening over much of TX. Storms are expected to develop in the mid-afternoon near the outflow boundary/dryline triple-point near SJT. These storms will likely be supercellular with a potential for very large hail and perhaps a tornado. Other storms will form along/north of the outflow boundary near the NM/TX border where strong heating is expected. All of these storms will progress eastward through the early evening and slowly congeal into a large MCS. It appears likely that a bowing complex will eventually move across much of central TX with a potential for scattered damaging wind gusts, hail, and isolated tornadoes. ...Gulf Coast States... A very moist and potentially unstable air mass is present today from southeast TX into much of LA/MS/AL/GA. 12z model guidance suggest that several clusters of thunderstorms will move across this region this afternoon and evening, beneath modest southwesterly mid level winds and relatively cool temperatures aloft. It appears at this time that these storms will be relatively disorganized. However, isolated strong/damaging wind gusts are expected with the more intense cores through the afternoon and early evening. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC