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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, May 23, 2022

SPC May 23, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon into Monday night across parts of the southern Plains, with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado or two possible. Storms capable of isolated damaging wind and a tornado or two are possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing currently in place across the CONUS is expected throughout the day today as a pair of embedded shortwave troughs move into the Plains. The lead shortwave is forecast to move into the central Plains late this afternoon, while the shortwave following quickly in its wake moves into the southern High Plains this evening. Lee troughing will deepen across the central and southern High Plains ahead of this second shortwave trough, with the resulting increase in the surface pressure gradient supporting moisture return throughout the day. Instability associated with the returning low-level moisture coupled with ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave and convergence along the dryline are expected to result in numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. Farther east, a convectively augmented shortwave trough and associated surface low are currently moving over the central Gulf Coast. This system is expected to continue moving gradually northeastward throughout the day, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by early Tuesday morning. ...Southern High Plains... A significant gradient in moisture exists across the southern Plains currently, particularly for this time of year. Dewpoints along the TX Gulf Coast are in the upper 60s/low 70s while dewpoints in the TX Panhandle are in the upper 20s/low 30s. Even so, strong moisture return is anticipated throughout the day, with upper 50s dewpoints in place across the TX Panhandle by tomorrow afternoon. This increasing low-level moisture should led to increased buoyancy ahead of the shortwave mentioned in synopsis. Ascent attendant to the shortwave coupled with low-level convergence along the dryline should result in the development of numerous thunderstorms. Vertical shear will be modest, but a few more organized updrafts are possible. Hail will be the primary severe risk early, with a transition to wind damage as the storms become more outflow dominant. Additional thunderstorm development is also possible farther south into the Trans-Pecos region associated with a weak shortwave trough moving out of northeastern Mexico. Like the area farther north, vertical shear will be modest, likely limiting the number of organized storms. Even so, a few organized storms capable of hail and/or damaging winds are possible. A strong low-level jet is forecast to across west TX tonight, and there is some potential for upscale growth of the afternoon thunderstorm activity into one or more convective lines. Recent guidance indicates this is most likely across the Edwards Plateau, with the resulting line then moving into the TX Hill Country. ...Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic... Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the shortwave trough moving through the region. Destabilization ahead of the shortwave will be limited by cloudiness, but temperatures are still expected to reach into the low to mid 80s. These temperatures, coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, will support moderate buoyancy, despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Slightly enhanced low- to mid-level flow is expected throughout the eastern periphery of the trough, contributing to strong low-level shear. This combination of buoyancy and shear could result in a few stronger storms with the thunderstorms ahead of the shortwave. Primary threat is damaging downburst winds, but a brief tornado or two is also possible, particularly over GA and SC during the early afternoon when the low- to mid-level flow will be strongest. ..Mosier/Moore.. 05/23/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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