SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022
Valid 222000Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms, some with damaging to severe gusts and
large hail, are expected this afternoon and evening over parts of
the Mid-Atlantic region and New England.
...20Z Update...
The Slight Risk has been trimmed in the wake of prefrontal
convection across parts of NY/PA, where airmass recovery appears
less likely prior to the arrival of the primary cold front. The
Marginal Risk has been left in place along/ahead of the cold front
in NY/PA, though, since storms capable of isolated damaging wind
remain possible prior to frontal passage.
No other major changes have been made to the outlook. Storms are
gradually increasing in intensity from the Mid Atlantic into New
England, and these storms will pose a threat of locally damaging
wind, isolated hail, and perhaps a brief tornado or two into this
evening as they move eastward. See the previous discussion below for
more information regarding the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, and see
MCDs 872/873 for additional information regarding the Marginal Risk
in the Southeast.
..Dean.. 05/22/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022/
...New England into Mid-Atlantic region...
Morning surface analysis shows a cold front extending from Quebec
into eastern OH, then southward into the TN Valley. Relatively
strong daytime heating is occurring ahead of the front across much
of New England into the Mid-Atlantic states, with temperatures
expected to climb into the 80s and low 90s. Ample low level
moisture is in place across the region with dewpoints in the upper
60s, yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of up to 2000 J/kg. Scattered
clusters of thunderstorms are expected throughout the region by
mid-afternoon. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid-level winds
will be present today from VA northward, helping to organize
convection, with stronger cells capable of locally damaging wind
gusts. Parts of northern/western New England will have the
strongest low and deep layer shear profiles, suggesting a better
chance of supercell storm structures along with a risk of hail and
perhaps a tornado or two.
...Southeast States...
Similar to yesterday, widespread hot/humid surface conditions and
cool temperatures aloft will be coincident across much of the
southeast US. Scattered slow-moving afternoon thunderstorms will
pose a risk of locally strong/damaging wind gusts across the region
today.
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