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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, May 22, 2022

SPC May 22, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with damaging to severe gusts and large hail, are expected this afternoon and evening over parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and New England. ...20Z Update... The Slight Risk has been trimmed in the wake of prefrontal convection across parts of NY/PA, where airmass recovery appears less likely prior to the arrival of the primary cold front. The Marginal Risk has been left in place along/ahead of the cold front in NY/PA, though, since storms capable of isolated damaging wind remain possible prior to frontal passage. No other major changes have been made to the outlook. Storms are gradually increasing in intensity from the Mid Atlantic into New England, and these storms will pose a threat of locally damaging wind, isolated hail, and perhaps a brief tornado or two into this evening as they move eastward. See the previous discussion below for more information regarding the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, and see MCDs 872/873 for additional information regarding the Marginal Risk in the Southeast. ..Dean.. 05/22/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022/ ...New England into Mid-Atlantic region... Morning surface analysis shows a cold front extending from Quebec into eastern OH, then southward into the TN Valley. Relatively strong daytime heating is occurring ahead of the front across much of New England into the Mid-Atlantic states, with temperatures expected to climb into the 80s and low 90s. Ample low level moisture is in place across the region with dewpoints in the upper 60s, yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of up to 2000 J/kg. Scattered clusters of thunderstorms are expected throughout the region by mid-afternoon. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid-level winds will be present today from VA northward, helping to organize convection, with stronger cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts. Parts of northern/western New England will have the strongest low and deep layer shear profiles, suggesting a better chance of supercell storm structures along with a risk of hail and perhaps a tornado or two. ...Southeast States... Similar to yesterday, widespread hot/humid surface conditions and cool temperatures aloft will be coincident across much of the southeast US. Scattered slow-moving afternoon thunderstorms will pose a risk of locally strong/damaging wind gusts across the region today. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)