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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, May 21, 2022

SPC May 21, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and large hail will be possible across parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail could also occur across parts of north and east Texas. ...Texas... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern and central High Plains on Monday. At the surface, a trough is forecast to develop across central Texas. Ahead of the surface trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F. In response, moderate instability is expected across much of the moist sector by afternoon. Although thunderstorm development will be possible across a large portion of the southern Plains, the strongest convection is expected along the western edge of the moderately unstable airmass. Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage during the afternoon and move eastward into the stronger instability across the Texas Hill country and north Texas. Forecast soundings Monday afternoon, near the axis of strongest instability, have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to range from about 30 knots in north Texas to around 40 knots in the Texas Hill Country. This combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Wind damage would be the greatest of the threats if an organized line segment can develop. If cells remain more discrete, then supercell development will be possible. At this time, the models show the best severe-weather parameters over southwest and central Texas, where there could be a slightly greater potential for wind damage and isolated large hail than further to the north. If tomorrow's model runs continue to show more potential for severe storms in central and southwest Texas on Monday, then a slight could be added in an upcoming outlook. ..Broyles.. 05/21/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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