SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage and large hail will be possible across parts of
central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms
with strong wind gusts and hail could also occur across parts of
north and east Texas.
...Texas...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern
and central High Plains on Monday. At the surface, a trough is
forecast to develop across central Texas. Ahead of the surface
trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place with surface
dewpoints from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F. In response, moderate
instability is expected across much of the moist sector by
afternoon. Although thunderstorm development will be possible across
a large portion of the southern Plains, the strongest convection is
expected along the western edge of the moderately unstable airmass.
Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage during the
afternoon and move eastward into the stronger instability across the
Texas Hill country and north Texas.
Forecast soundings Monday afternoon, near the axis of strongest
instability, have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. 0-6
km shear is forecast to range from about 30 knots in north Texas to
around 40 knots in the Texas Hill Country. This combined with steep
low to mid-level lapse rates should be sufficient for an isolated
severe threat. Wind damage would be the greatest of the threats if
an organized line segment can develop. If cells remain more
discrete, then supercell development will be possible. At this time,
the models show the best severe-weather parameters over southwest
and central Texas, where there could be a slightly greater potential
for wind damage and isolated large hail than further to the north.
If tomorrow's model runs continue to show more potential for severe
storms in central and southwest Texas on Monday, then a slight could
be added in an upcoming outlook.
..Broyles.. 05/21/2022
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