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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Saturday, May 21, 2022

SPC May 21, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Tuesday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be located across parts of central and east Texas, where moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorm formation will be possible over a large part of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. An MCS may organize along the northern edge of the stronger instability and pose a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. At this time, there is a large spread in the model solutions concerning where this MCS could potentially form. This combined with the fact that mesoscale influences will be a strong contributor to any severe threat, makes for a lot of uncertainty. There will likely be need for a severe threat area once the model solutions key in on a specific area with greater potential. On Wednesday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the southern Plains. A moist and unstable airmass should be in place from the Texas Coastal Plains eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Moisture advection will also take place across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A potential for strong thunderstorm development will be possible along the northern edge of the stronger instability, somewhere from east Texas eastward into lower Mississippi Valley. Other strong thunderstorms could form ahead of a cold front from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley. Mesoscale influences and the distribution of instability will again have a strong impact any severe threat that develops Wednesday afternoon. The upper-level trough is forecast to move into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as a moist airmass remains to the east of the system. Thunderstorm development will be possible over a large area from the central Gulf Coast states northward into the Ohio Valley. Isolated strong thunderstorms will again be possible along this corridor in areas that heat up the most, and in areas where mesoscale factors are favorable. From Tuesday to Thursday, predictability is too low to add a threat area, due to the uncertainties previously mentioned. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday and Saturday, the upper-level system is forecast to move slowly eastward toward the East Coast. Thunderstorms will again be possible each day across a broad area ahead of the system. Although strong thunderstorms will be possible in some areas of the eastern U.S. each afternoon and evening, the range in the forecast is too far out to make any solid conclusions concerning specific threat areas. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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