DarkSky Temps | Gusts | WU KORD Data

CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ...

RADAR FULL MAP SCREEN

NEXRAD

STORMTRACK

Cardinal SAT

CHGOWX.COM



MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, May 20, 2022

SPC May 20, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL PART OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO NEW JERSEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...AND OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to be most concentrated over portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic states, Lower Michigan, and a small part of the southern Plains this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... Have trimmed severe probabilities behind a small cluster of thunderstorms over eastern PA. Damaging winds should continue to be the main threat with this activity as it spreads into NJ over the next couple of hours, but a tornado or two also remain possible. See Mesoscale Discussion 842 and 843 for more information on the near-term severe threat across this area. An intense supercell producing a tornado is ongoing at 1958Z over northern Lower MI. The 19Z sounding from APX shows a favorable environment for continued thunderstorm organization, and it appears plausible that this supercell will persist across the rest of northern Lower MI over the next hour or so. A threat for tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds should persist with this supercell in the short term, and with any other intense thunderstorms that can develop. Still, weak large-scale ascent will probably tend to limit overall coverage through the rest of the afternoon, with the overall severe threat probably remaining fairly isolated. See Mesoscale Discussion 844 for additional details on the near-term severe threat across northern Lower MI. Elsewhere, little to no changes were made to the outlook. ..Gleason.. 05/20/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022/ ...Mid Atlantic Region... A well-defined MCV is noted on satellite imagery over southwest PA. This feature will track eastward today across PA, northern MD, and into NJ, fostering the development of severe thunderstorms. Destabilization ahead of the MCV, combined with strong low and mid-level wind fields near the circulation will promote the development of supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Given the rapid eastward motion of the activity, it should move off the NJ coast well before dark, ending the severe threat. ...MI... A strong surface cold front currently extends from southern WI northward into upper MI. This front will cross Lake Michigan this afternoon and move into lower MI by early evening. Thunderstorms are expected to form in vicinity of the front and move across parts of the northern Lower MI. Forecast soundings suggest favorable parameters for large hail in the stronger storms, along with the possibility of isolated tornadoes. ...OK/TX... A cold front is sagging southward across OK today, and should stall for awhile this evening before progressing into TX overnight. A strengthening southerly low-level jet atop the boundary will lead to scattered thunderstorms in a very unstable air mass. Storms may be supercellular with large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out before activity becomes more linear after dark. ...FL... A moist boundary layer is present today across the FL peninsula, along with pockets of strong heating. Scattered thunderstorms have begun to form over south FL, and this activity is expected to build northward through the day. Relatively cool temperatures and modest westerly flow aloft will promote a few organized multicell storm clusters capable of gusty/damaging winds or perhaps hail. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SQmc02