Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CDT Mon May 02 2022
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Ozarks and
Arklatex on Thursday, as an associated a cold front advances
southeastward into the same area. Ahead of the front, a moist and
unstable airmass is forecast across the lower and mid Mississippi
Valley, where surface dewpoints in the 60s should contribute to
moderate instability by afternoon. During the day, thunderstorms are
likely to develop along the front and eastward across the moist
sector. A mid-level jet, associated with the upper-level trough,
will create moderate to strong deep-layer shear favorable for severe
storms. Large hail, wind damage and some tornadoes can be expected
during the afternoon and evening. A 30 percent contour has been
added where parameters are most favorable, from eastern Arkansas
into northwest Mississippi and far western Tennessee.
On Friday and Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move across the
Southeast and western Atlantic, as moisture return begins in the
southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms could occur
along parts of the front in the Southeast on Friday. Model forecasts
are now in better agreement in the Great Plains on Saturday. An axis
of moderate instability may develop from Oklahoma
north-northwestward into Kansas and Nebraska Saturday afternoon.
Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak due to a central
U.S. upper-level ridge, thunderstorms could develop along a dryline
near the western edge of the stronger instability. Supercells with
large hail and wind damage would be possible but any severe threat
should remain isolated.
...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
On Sunday, model forecasts develop an upper-level low over the
southwestern U.S., as an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet moves into the
base of the trough. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be
located from the southern Plains northward into the mid Missouri
Valley by Sunday afternoon. Isolated severe thunderstorms will again
be possible to the east of a Great Plains dryline Sunday afternoon
and evening. On Monday, the upper-level low is forecast to remain
over the western U.S., with a moist corridor becoming established
across eastern parts of the Great Plains into the Ozarks and lower
Missouri Valley. Thunderstorm development will again be possible
along a Great Plains dryline and across parts of the moist corridor.
For Sunday and Monday, large differences exist in the model
solutions, suggesting that uncertainty is considerable.
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