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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, May 2, 2022

SPC May 2, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Mon May 02 2022 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Ozarks and Arklatex on Thursday, as an associated a cold front advances southeastward into the same area. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast across the lower and mid Mississippi Valley, where surface dewpoints in the 60s should contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. During the day, thunderstorms are likely to develop along the front and eastward across the moist sector. A mid-level jet, associated with the upper-level trough, will create moderate to strong deep-layer shear favorable for severe storms. Large hail, wind damage and some tornadoes can be expected during the afternoon and evening. A 30 percent contour has been added where parameters are most favorable, from eastern Arkansas into northwest Mississippi and far western Tennessee. On Friday and Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move across the Southeast and western Atlantic, as moisture return begins in the southern and central Plains. Isolated severe storms could occur along parts of the front in the Southeast on Friday. Model forecasts are now in better agreement in the Great Plains on Saturday. An axis of moderate instability may develop from Oklahoma north-northwestward into Kansas and Nebraska Saturday afternoon. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak due to a central U.S. upper-level ridge, thunderstorms could develop along a dryline near the western edge of the stronger instability. Supercells with large hail and wind damage would be possible but any severe threat should remain isolated. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... On Sunday, model forecasts develop an upper-level low over the southwestern U.S., as an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet moves into the base of the trough. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be located from the southern Plains northward into the mid Missouri Valley by Sunday afternoon. Isolated severe thunderstorms will again be possible to the east of a Great Plains dryline Sunday afternoon and evening. On Monday, the upper-level low is forecast to remain over the western U.S., with a moist corridor becoming established across eastern parts of the Great Plains into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley. Thunderstorm development will again be possible along a Great Plains dryline and across parts of the moist corridor. For Sunday and Monday, large differences exist in the model solutions, suggesting that uncertainty is considerable. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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