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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, May 2, 2022

SPC May 2, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon May 02 2022 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS...THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and some tornadoes will be likely Wednesday afternoon and evening across the southern Plains extending northeastward into the western Ozarks. Very large hail will be likely and strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Southern and Central Plains/Western Ozarks... An upper-level low will move across the central Rockies on Wednesday as cyclonic divergent southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the southern and central Plains. A 50 to 65 knot mid-level jet, initially in the base of the trough, will eject northeastward across the southern Plains creating strong deep-layer shear favorable for severe storms. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the southern and central High Plains as a low deepens across the Texas Panhandle. Strong moisture advection will take place across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints should be in the mid to upper 60s F across much of north Texas and Oklahoma. This will result in moderate to strong instability from west Texas northeastward into western and central Oklahoma by afternoon. Thunderstorms are first expected to initiate during the late afternoon, to the east of the dryline in the eastern Texas Panhandle. Additional storms should form eastward across the moist sector in western and central Oklahoma, where a baroclinic zone will exist. As cell coverage increases during the late afternoon and early evening, several severe storm clusters are expected to organize and move eastward across the northwest Texas and Oklahoma. Considering the parameter space near and to the east of the dryline, the NAM forecast sounding near Childress at 00Z/Thursday is very favorable for supercells with large hail. MLCAPE is forecast to be near 3000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 55 knot range. 500-700 mb lapse rates are forecast to be extreme, approaching 9.0 C/km along the dryline in northwest Texas. Supercells that intensify in this thermodynamic environment will likely produce very large hailstones, greater than 2 inches in diameter. Some tornadoes could occur along the dryline as well from the eastern Texas Panhandle southward into the Low Rolling Plains. Further to the east into western and central Oklahoma, a high-end parameter space is also forecast late Wednesday afternoon. The NAM forecast sounding at Oklahoma City for 00Z/Thursday has MLCAPE near 2800 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 55 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8.5 C/km. This will again be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be likely with the more intense supercells. 0-3 storm relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 300 to 350 m2/s2 range during the early evening. This will make tornadoes possible with the more dominant supercells, especially to the north and west of the low-level jet in central and western Oklahoma. A strong tornado or two will be possible in this environment. Thunderstorms are expected to continue into the mid to late evening, moving east-northeastward across eastern Oklahoma and into the western Ozarks. Supercells and bowing line segments will be possible, with isolated large hail and wind damage. The threat could persist into the early overnight period. ..Broyles.. 05/02/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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