SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Mon May 02 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS...THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and some tornadoes
will be likely Wednesday afternoon and evening across the southern
Plains extending northeastward into the western Ozarks. Very large
hail will be likely and strong tornadoes will be possible.
...Southern and Central Plains/Western Ozarks...
An upper-level low will move across the central Rockies on Wednesday
as cyclonic divergent southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the
southern and central Plains. A 50 to 65 knot mid-level jet,
initially in the base of the trough, will eject northeastward across
the southern Plains creating strong deep-layer shear favorable for
severe storms. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward
across the southern and central High Plains as a low deepens across
the Texas Panhandle. Strong moisture advection will take place
across the southern Plains. Surface dewpoints should be in the mid
to upper 60s F across much of north Texas and Oklahoma. This will
result in moderate to strong instability from west Texas
northeastward into western and central Oklahoma by afternoon.
Thunderstorms are first expected to initiate during the late
afternoon, to the east of the dryline in the eastern Texas
Panhandle. Additional storms should form eastward across the moist
sector in western and central Oklahoma, where a baroclinic zone will
exist. As cell coverage increases during the late afternoon and
early evening, several severe storm clusters are expected to
organize and move eastward across the northwest Texas and Oklahoma.
Considering the parameter space near and to the east of the dryline,
the NAM forecast sounding near Childress at 00Z/Thursday is very
favorable for supercells with large hail. MLCAPE is forecast to be
near 3000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 55 knot range. 500-700
mb lapse rates are forecast to be extreme, approaching 9.0 C/km
along the dryline in northwest Texas. Supercells that intensify in
this thermodynamic environment will likely produce very large
hailstones, greater than 2 inches in diameter. Some tornadoes could
occur along the dryline as well from the eastern Texas Panhandle
southward into the Low Rolling Plains.
Further to the east into western and central Oklahoma, a high-end
parameter space is also forecast late Wednesday afternoon. The NAM
forecast sounding at Oklahoma City for 00Z/Thursday has MLCAPE near
2800 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 55 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse
rates of 8.5 C/km. This will again be very favorable for supercells
with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will
be likely with the more intense supercells. 0-3 storm relative
helicity is forecast to increase into the 300 to 350 m2/s2 range
during the early evening. This will make tornadoes possible with the
more dominant supercells, especially to the north and west of the
low-level jet in central and western Oklahoma. A strong tornado or
two will be possible in this environment.
Thunderstorms are expected to continue into the mid to late evening,
moving east-northeastward across eastern Oklahoma and into the
western Ozarks. Supercells and bowing line segments will be
possible, with isolated large hail and wind damage. The threat could
persist into the early overnight period.
..Broyles.. 05/02/2022
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