SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Sun May 01 2022
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into the overnight
within the southern High Plains and eastward into southwest Oklahoma
and central Texas. Large to very large hail and damaging winds are
the primary threats. A few tornadoes will remain possible as well.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough continues northeastward through the upper Midwest
this evening. Farther west, another shortwave trough will continue
to swing southeastward through the Great Basin and into the southern
High Plains by Monday morning. At the surface, a cyclone currently
analyzed in central New Mexico is expected to propagate into the
High Plains and deepen this evening. Strong return flow in the
southern Plains should continue to advect fairly rich moisture, as
observed by CRP and DRT soundings this evening, northward behind an
advancing warm front.
...Southern Plains...
Scattered supercells developed along the High Plains dryline this
evening. This activity has largely remained discrete over the past
few hours. While there is some uncertainty as to how this activity
will evolve with time, continued low-level theta-e advection to the
east of this activity should some continue risk for large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes. Hail upwards of 2 inches will remain
a possibility as long as storms can remain discrete. The expectation
is that a cluster or two may develop and move eastward with further
development expected along the warm front as the low-level jet
increases.
...Upper Ohio Valley...
The shortwave trough across the upper Midwest may continue to
support marginally severe storms from West Virginia into western
Pennsylvania for another couple of hours. Isolated large hail and
damaging winds are possible in the short term.
..Wendt.. 05/02/2022
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