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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, May 2, 2022

SPC May 2, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun May 01 2022 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into the overnight within the southern High Plains and eastward into southwest Oklahoma and central Texas. Large to very large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. A few tornadoes will remain possible as well. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough continues northeastward through the upper Midwest this evening. Farther west, another shortwave trough will continue to swing southeastward through the Great Basin and into the southern High Plains by Monday morning. At the surface, a cyclone currently analyzed in central New Mexico is expected to propagate into the High Plains and deepen this evening. Strong return flow in the southern Plains should continue to advect fairly rich moisture, as observed by CRP and DRT soundings this evening, northward behind an advancing warm front. ...Southern Plains... Scattered supercells developed along the High Plains dryline this evening. This activity has largely remained discrete over the past few hours. While there is some uncertainty as to how this activity will evolve with time, continued low-level theta-e advection to the east of this activity should some continue risk for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Hail upwards of 2 inches will remain a possibility as long as storms can remain discrete. The expectation is that a cluster or two may develop and move eastward with further development expected along the warm front as the low-level jet increases. ...Upper Ohio Valley... The shortwave trough across the upper Midwest may continue to support marginally severe storms from West Virginia into western Pennsylvania for another couple of hours. Isolated large hail and damaging winds are possible in the short term. ..Wendt.. 05/02/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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