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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Sunday, May 1, 2022

SPC May 1, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun May 01 2022 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are still expected across the southern High Plains into central Texas, beginning around mid-afternoon and persisting through tonight. Damaging gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change made to this outlook was to add 30 percent wind probabilities across portions of southwest Texas. Here, clustering or potential upscale growth of hail-laden storm cores in a steep low and mid-level lapse rate environment may encourage intense cold pool development via hydrometeor melting/evaporating processes, with a locally higher density of severe gusts possible. Otherwise, supercells that can prolong their inflow dominant phase and remain discrete are still expected to pose a large hail/tornado threat, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter (please see MCD 0607 for more details). 2 percent tornado probabilities were also added along the OH/PA border. While convective development remains in question, any storms that form may benefit from the locally backed surface winds across the area, where RAP forecast soundings show modest low-level hodograph curvature. Given adequate buoyancy, any cells that can mature may briefly become transient-supercellular and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Please see MCD 0609 for more details. ..Squitieri.. 05/01/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun May 01 2022/ ...Southern Plains... Current surface analysis shows a reservoir of rich low-level moisture in place over south and central TX. Southeasterly low-level winds will transport this air mass northwestward, with rapid moistening and destabilization of the boundary layer across west TX and eastern NM this afternoon and evening. Relatively strong heating and only a weak capping inversion is expected to lead to several supercells developing across the area by mid-afternoon. Storms will first form along the retreating warm front from the Permian Basin into the Hill Country. Deep-layer shear profiles will promote discrete supercell structures, while low-level winds are sufficient for the risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and evening. However, very large hail is expected to be the primary risk with storms in this corridor. Later this afternoon and evening, the development of discrete storms including supercells will occur farther north across the western TX panhandle into northeast NM and even southeast CO. These storms will be in a drier boundary-layer environment, but very steep lapse rates and the strength of the mid/upper level winds will be conducive for very large hail formation and perhaps a tornado or two. ...VA/NC... Full sunshine is occurring this morning across much of southern VA and northern NC, where dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s will yield MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms currently over the mountains of extreme southwest VA and east TN will spread eastward and intensify this afternoon as they encounter the unstable air. This should lead to scattered strong to severe storms, capable of damaging winds and hail. Activity will track eastward roughly along the NC/VA border through the early evening. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SPbP48