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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, May 19, 2022

SPC May 19, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough and associated surface low are forecast to move from the Great Lakes into parts of Quebec on D4/Sunday, as a cold front moves through the lower Great Lakes into portions of New England. Another upper trough is forecast to become established over the central CONUS by D5/Monday, though instability may be slow to recover across the Plains, in the wake of an earlier cold frontal passage. Some severe thunderstorm potential is evident over parts of the lower Great Lakes into northern New England on D4/Sunday, in association with the cold front. At this time, severe potential appears relatively low on D5/Monday. Potential may gradually increase later next week as the upper trough moves eastward, but predictability regarding the synoptic pattern and low-level moisture return decreases substantially with time. ...D4/Sunday: Lower Great Lakes into northern New England... Heating and moistening in advance of the cold front should allow for moderate destabilization from parts of the lower Great Lakes into northern New England. Scattered thunderstorm development is possible along/ahead of the front by afternoon, with modestly enhanced low/mid-level flow supporting organized storm clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and hail as the front moves eastward into Sunday evening. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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