Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough and associated surface low are forecast to move from
the Great Lakes into parts of Quebec on D4/Sunday, as a cold front
moves through the lower Great Lakes into portions of New England.
Another upper trough is forecast to become established over the
central CONUS by D5/Monday, though instability may be slow to
recover across the Plains, in the wake of an earlier cold frontal
passage.
Some severe thunderstorm potential is evident over parts of the
lower Great Lakes into northern New England on D4/Sunday, in
association with the cold front. At this time, severe potential
appears relatively low on D5/Monday. Potential may gradually
increase later next week as the upper trough moves eastward, but
predictability regarding the synoptic pattern and low-level moisture
return decreases substantially with time.
...D4/Sunday: Lower Great Lakes into northern New England...
Heating and moistening in advance of the cold front should allow for
moderate destabilization from parts of the lower Great Lakes into
northern New England. Scattered thunderstorm development is possible
along/ahead of the front by afternoon, with modestly enhanced
low/mid-level flow supporting organized storm clusters capable of
damaging wind gusts and hail as the front moves eastward into Sunday
evening.
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