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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, May 19, 2022

SPC May 19, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon into early tonight across northern Iowa, southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Scattered to numerous damaging winds, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes should also occur this afternoon from southern Missouri into parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky. ...20Z Update... Primary change with this update was to expand the Enhanced Risk westward to account for the current position of a compact bowing cluster in southern MO associated with an MCV. Radar presentation of this cluster, especially recent velocity data from KSGF, shows potential for numerous severe winds, some potentially 75+ mph. Have included a significant wind area across parts of southeastern MO and continuing into southern IL, as the airmass downstream has become moderately to strongly unstable. Father east, more cellular convection has developed over parts of southern IN into KY and northeastern TN to the south of a diffuse warm front. This activity should pose a threat for mainly large hail and damaging winds, but a couple of tornadoes will remain possible across this entire region, especially with the cluster tied to the MCV where low-level shear is locally enhanced. See Mesoscale Discussion 831 for more details. No changes have been made to the risk areas across the Upper Midwest. It appears likely that intense convection will develop by 21-22Z, with an increasing threat for very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Mesoscale Discussion 830 has more information on the short-term severe threat across MN/IA. ..Gleason.. 05/19/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022/ ...Upper MS Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending eastward along the IA/MN border. This boundary will lift slightly northward today, with a warm and moderately moist airmass along and south of the front. A southerly low-level jet will strengthen by mid-afternoon, enhancing convergence/lift along the boundary and result in the development of intense thunderstorms. Supercells map develop across the ENH risk area, capable of very large hail and a tornado or two. During the evening, storms will likely develop southwestward across western IA into eastern NE, with a more localized risk of large hail and damaging winds. ...Lower OH Valley... Satellite imagery shows a pronounced MCV over southwest MO. A cluster of lead thunderstorms over eastern MO will limit northward destabilization this afternoon, but a corridor of moderate/strong instability will likely form ahead of the MCV from southern MO into southern IL/IN and western KY. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this area, posing an initial risk of large hail and a tornado or two. 12z CAM solutions suggest the activity will grow upscale during the evening with an increasing risk of damaging winds as the storms move into IN/KY. Activity may remain locally severe as far east as OH/WV later tonight before weakening as they track into the mountains. ...Carolinas... The environment from the western Carolinas to the coast will be moderately unstable this afternoon, with a conditional risk of damaging winds and hail in persistent/robust thunderstorm clusters. However, 12z model guidance suggests very few storms will develop due to weak forcing aloft. Therefore will maintain only MRGL risk for today. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC