SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and
evening from northern New England southwestward into the southern
Plains.
...Synopsis...
A positively tilted upper trough initially over the northern Plains
Saturday morning is forecast to move eastward toward the Great Lakes
region though the day. A weak surface low may develop along a
slow-moving cold front and move from parts of the mid MS Valley into
the OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes region. A weak surface low may also
persist or develop near the front/dryline intersection across TX.
...OH Valley into the southern Plains...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected near and north of
the slow-moving cold front, especially Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is expected to
generally remain to the cool side of the boundary, though effective
shear, in conjunction with moderate instability, may be sufficient
to support a few organized cells/clusters, posing a threat of
isolated hail and perhaps localized damaging gusts. While most
convection will likely be somewhat elevated north of the front, some
potential for surface-based convection may evolve near any frontal
wave that develops, and also toward the ArkLaTex into the
central/eastern TX, where somewhat stronger heating is possible
ahead of the front and dryline. If confidence increases in
surface-based development across some portion of the broad Marginal
Risk, higher severe probabilities may be needed.
...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England...
Moderate instability may develop in advance of a weak cold front
that will move into part of the lower Great Lakes into northern New
England. Coverage of storms remains somewhat uncertain across this
region, but at least isolated development appears possible.
Deep-layer flow/shear will be sufficient for a few stronger storms
capable of isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail during
the afternoon and evening.
..Dean.. 05/19/2022
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SQg63s
