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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, May 19, 2022

SPC May 19, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening from northern New England southwestward into the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper trough initially over the northern Plains Saturday morning is forecast to move eastward toward the Great Lakes region though the day. A weak surface low may develop along a slow-moving cold front and move from parts of the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes region. A weak surface low may also persist or develop near the front/dryline intersection across TX. ...OH Valley into the southern Plains... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected near and north of the slow-moving cold front, especially Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is expected to generally remain to the cool side of the boundary, though effective shear, in conjunction with moderate instability, may be sufficient to support a few organized cells/clusters, posing a threat of isolated hail and perhaps localized damaging gusts. While most convection will likely be somewhat elevated north of the front, some potential for surface-based convection may evolve near any frontal wave that develops, and also toward the ArkLaTex into the central/eastern TX, where somewhat stronger heating is possible ahead of the front and dryline. If confidence increases in surface-based development across some portion of the broad Marginal Risk, higher severe probabilities may be needed. ...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England... Moderate instability may develop in advance of a weak cold front that will move into part of the lower Great Lakes into northern New England. Coverage of storms remains somewhat uncertain across this region, but at least isolated development appears possible. Deep-layer flow/shear will be sufficient for a few stronger storms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail during the afternoon and evening. ..Dean.. 05/19/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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