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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, May 16, 2022

SPC May 16, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO FRONT RANGE TO THE OHIO VALLEY/APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday especially across parts of the Lower Ohio Valley and the south-central High Plains. ...Lower Ohio Valley... Current thinking is that early day thunderstorms will be ongoing Wednesday morning, likely aided by a convectively enhanced vorticity maxima as well as warm/moist advection. Downstream thunderstorm reintensification is expected on the southern fringes of this early day activity and along/south of a warm front. This should result in an afternoon uptick in severe storms across parts of the Lower Ohio Valley to the nearby Appalachians, with damaging winds and severe hail as the primary hazards. A Slight Risk is plausible in future outlook updates, although uncertainties regarding the extent/placement of early day convection and downstream impacts precludes a categorical Slight Risk at this time. ...Colorado/New Mexico Front Range and south-central Plains... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon across the Colorado/New Mexico Front Range and Raton Mesa vicinity. This scenario will be aided by modestly moist upslope trajectories. Modest strength mid-level westerlies atop east-southeasterly low-level winds could support a few supercells and sustained multicells capable of hail and perhaps localized severe-caliber winds. A loosely organized cluster of storms could evolve by early evening and spread east-southeastward across the south-central High Plains, potentially including southwest Kansas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. ..Guyer.. 05/16/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC