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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, May 16, 2022

SPC May 16, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and a couple brief/weak tornadoes remain possible into early evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States. Scattered severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are also possible across a portion of the southern High Plains during the late afternoon and evening. Scattered strong to severe storms persist along and ahead of a cold front from NY into NC. Outlook changes were primarily to remove areas cleared by the cold front as it progresses rapidly eastward. New storms over northern VA may develop further and spread across much of MD and DE with hail and wind threat. Have shunted the western edge of the Enhanced Risk in VA/MD a bit farther east as near-term storm coverage is currently sparse, but may increase as the front encounters better moisture. For more information see mesoscale discussions 786 and 787. ..Jewell.. 05/16/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022/ ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... A shortwave trough over the Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes will progress east-northeast into New England by tonight, as an associated surface cyclone deepens across the Saint Lawrence Valley and a trailing cold front likewise moves east and offshore tonight. Low to mid 60s boundary-layer dewpoints are common ahead of the front and moderate surface heating in cloud breaks will support a plume of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer flow/vertical shear will increase with the approach of the midlevel trough from the west, contributing to an environment supportive of organized line segments and some supercell structures. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within the warm conveyor regime ahead of the cold front across central PA into western NY. This activity will likely be the primary focus for damaging wind potential as it likely intensifies east across PA/NJ/NY. Additional thunderstorms should develop farther south, perhaps in multiple waves, emanating first off the lee trough and later along the cold front. With greater deep-layer shear across the Lower Mid-Atlantic region and potentially somewhat higher buoyancy if cloud breaks can become more pronounced, a mix of both isolated large hail along with scattered damaging winds are expected. ...Southern High Plains... Low-level moisture has spread westward into central NM on post-frontal easterly flow. Despite low-amplitude mid-level ridging, weak lee cyclogenesis and heating/mixing within the initially moist air mass will reduce convective inhibition this afternoon and allow scattered high-based thunderstorm development across the eastern half of NM. Storms will gradually grow upscale and spread eastward on consolidating outflows. Inverted-V profiles with large DCAPE (near 1500 J/kg) will favor scattered severe outflow gusts, some of which may reach 70-80 mph prior to the convection slowly weakening after dusk in the Panhandles to northwest TX. ...Central to northern High Plains, northern Rockies, and eastern Great Basin... Subtle embedded speed maxima will continue to move from the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies/High Plains, atop a weak baroclinic zone from central ID to southern MT. A lingering low to mid-level moisture plume and surface heating in cloud breaks will support MLCAPE up to about 500 J/kg, within a corridor of effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and largely straight hodographs. This environment will support isolated to scattered storms this afternoon/evening focused on southern MT and far northern WY, some of which could have low-end/splitting supercell characteristics with marginally severe hail and localized severe gusts. Farther south, a few high-based storms may form this afternoon across northern UT and the central High Plains area of eastern CO/WY. Inverted-V profiles will favor a microburst threat with any deep convection in this corridor during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Southern LA vicinity... A weak MCV drifting southeast from western LA may enhance sea-breeze thunderstorm development across southern LA this afternoon. With moderately large buoyancy and persistence of modest mid-level northerlies, a few storms in this region may produce isolated severe hail and damaging winds from wet microbursts. ...Southeast FL... A low-amplitude upper trough extends from central FL into the eastern Gulf with a belt of stronger mid to upper-level south-southwesterlies across the southeast portion of the peninsula. A few strong storms are possible with marginally severe hail and localized damaging winds. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC