SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST KS
INTO NORTHWEST OK THIS EVENING...AND FOR NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NE
OVERNIGHT...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening
from western Kansas into northwest Oklahoma, with other strong
storms possible overnight across parts of northern Kansas and
southern Nebraska. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts are
the main threats.
...KS into northwest OK this evening...
A few supercells are ongoing this evening from western Kansas into
northwest Oklahoma this evening, within an environment of moderate
buoyancy/deep-layer shear. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support a
hail risk with the remaining cells through much of the evening,
though a gradual decreasing trend is expected after sunset, with the
onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization.
...Northern KS into south-central/southeast NE overnight...
As a midlevel shortwave trough approaches from the west late
tonight, elevated convection is expected to develop near and north
of a frontal boundary, from northern KS into southern parts of NE.
Moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support the
potential for a few organized clusters and/or elevated supercells,
with a primary threat of large hail.
...Lower MS Valley into the Great Lakes...
Isolated strong storms may continue for another 1-2 hours from the
lower MS Valley into the Great Lakes, but a weakening trend is
expected as these primarily diurnal storms generally weaken with
time this evening.
..Dean.. 05/15/2022
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