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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Sunday, May 15, 2022

SPC May 15, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST KS INTO NORTHWEST OK THIS EVENING...AND FOR NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NE OVERNIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from western Kansas into northwest Oklahoma, with other strong storms possible overnight across parts of northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts are the main threats. ...KS into northwest OK this evening... A few supercells are ongoing this evening from western Kansas into northwest Oklahoma this evening, within an environment of moderate buoyancy/deep-layer shear. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support a hail risk with the remaining cells through much of the evening, though a gradual decreasing trend is expected after sunset, with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization. ...Northern KS into south-central/southeast NE overnight... As a midlevel shortwave trough approaches from the west late tonight, elevated convection is expected to develop near and north of a frontal boundary, from northern KS into southern parts of NE. Moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support the potential for a few organized clusters and/or elevated supercells, with a primary threat of large hail. ...Lower MS Valley into the Great Lakes... Isolated strong storms may continue for another 1-2 hours from the lower MS Valley into the Great Lakes, but a weakening trend is expected as these primarily diurnal storms generally weaken with time this evening. ..Dean.. 05/15/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC