SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS...AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN
IOWA/NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Locally severe storms are expected across potions of the central
Plains/Missouri Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening.
...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley vicinity...
West-northwesterly flow aloft is progged across much of the U.S.
Tuesday, south of a trio of upper lows over Canada. This westerly
flow will advect an elevated mixed layer across the central Plains,
with a cap effectively suppressing most convective potential south
of central Kansas.
However, with afternoon heating/mixing, isolated storm development
will be possible over portions of northern Kansas and into Nebraska,
in the vicinity of a weak warm front. Other storms are expected to
develop within low-level northeasterly upslope flow into the central
High Plains.
With moderate westerly flow aloft, expect storms to organize
locally. While weak low-level flow should limit tornado potential,
hail, along with potential for a few stronger wind gusts will exist.
After dark, as a low-level jet re-intensifies, storms should
increase in coverage, spreading east-southeastward into parts of
Iowa and Missouri. Risk for hail and locally strong gusts may
continue into the overnight hours.
..Goss.. 05/15/2022
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