SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN KS INTO SOUTHERN NE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across large swaths of
the central states. The most probable corridor for large hail is
across western Kansas this afternoon into early evening, and across
southern Nebraska into far northern Kansas overnight.
...20Z Update...
Minor changes to the ongoing forecast in western Kansas to better
reflect the current boundary positions. Elsewhere the forecast
remains on track.
Please see MCD 756 and 757 for short-term details on parts of the
Midwest and Ozarks, respectively.
..Wendt.. 05/14/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022/
...Western KS to west TX...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected along the dryline during the
late afternoon to early evening, most probable across parts of
western KS and TX Big Country regions. The most likely corridor for
a few high-based supercells appears centered on western KS, along
the northwest periphery of relatively higher surface dew points
across OK and where the 12Z DDC/OUN soundings sampled mean mixing
ratios around 10 g/kg. While low-level SRH should remain small,
effective bulk shear from 40-45 kts should support a threat for
large hail and locally strong-severe outflow gusts. This activity
will diminish after dusk.
...South-central/southeast NE and northeast KS...
A shortwave impulse over WA will quickly progress towards the SD/NE
border area on the backside of a deeper longwave trough over
south-central Canada. A pronounced upper-level jet streak will
spread towards the Mid-MO Valley, while 800-700 mb frontogenesis
intensifies over southern NE into northeast KS. Increasing elevated
buoyancy amid rather steep mid-level lapse rates will support
intensifying elevated convection in the 09-12Z time frame. A couple
fast-moving, longer-tracked elevated supercells are possible, with
large hail as the primary threat.
...Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley...
Deep-layer flow/shear will be quite weak from the Lower OH River
north into Lower MI, where surface heating will drive MLCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg (weaker north) and DCAPE near 1000 J/kg. Modest
low-level convergence and minimal convective inhibition should
support scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon, with the
potential for localized wind damage from downbursts.
Somewhat richer low-level moisture and larger CAPE are expected
farther south into the Lower MS Valley region, though there is some
lingering influence from remnant morning convection across the
Ark-La-Miss. Where pockets of stronger surface heating occur,
especially in conjunction with lingering outflow boundaries, a few
multicell clusters with strong/isolated damaging downburst winds and
marginally severe hail will be possible.
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