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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, May 14, 2022

SPC May 14, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN KS INTO SOUTHERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across large swaths of the central states. The most probable corridor for large hail is across western Kansas this afternoon into early evening, and across southern Nebraska into far northern Kansas overnight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes to the ongoing forecast in western Kansas to better reflect the current boundary positions. Elsewhere the forecast remains on track. Please see MCD 756 and 757 for short-term details on parts of the Midwest and Ozarks, respectively. ..Wendt.. 05/14/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022/ ...Western KS to west TX... Isolated thunderstorms are expected along the dryline during the late afternoon to early evening, most probable across parts of western KS and TX Big Country regions. The most likely corridor for a few high-based supercells appears centered on western KS, along the northwest periphery of relatively higher surface dew points across OK and where the 12Z DDC/OUN soundings sampled mean mixing ratios around 10 g/kg. While low-level SRH should remain small, effective bulk shear from 40-45 kts should support a threat for large hail and locally strong-severe outflow gusts. This activity will diminish after dusk. ...South-central/southeast NE and northeast KS... A shortwave impulse over WA will quickly progress towards the SD/NE border area on the backside of a deeper longwave trough over south-central Canada. A pronounced upper-level jet streak will spread towards the Mid-MO Valley, while 800-700 mb frontogenesis intensifies over southern NE into northeast KS. Increasing elevated buoyancy amid rather steep mid-level lapse rates will support intensifying elevated convection in the 09-12Z time frame. A couple fast-moving, longer-tracked elevated supercells are possible, with large hail as the primary threat. ...Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley... Deep-layer flow/shear will be quite weak from the Lower OH River north into Lower MI, where surface heating will drive MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg (weaker north) and DCAPE near 1000 J/kg. Modest low-level convergence and minimal convective inhibition should support scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon, with the potential for localized wind damage from downbursts. Somewhat richer low-level moisture and larger CAPE are expected farther south into the Lower MS Valley region, though there is some lingering influence from remnant morning convection across the Ark-La-Miss. Where pockets of stronger surface heating occur, especially in conjunction with lingering outflow boundaries, a few multicell clusters with strong/isolated damaging downburst winds and marginally severe hail will be possible. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC