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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, May 14, 2022

SPC May 14, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Agreement amongst global model solutions begins to break down Day 5/Wednesday over North America, particularly with the evolution of a low centered over the Hudson Bay vicinity Day 4. The ECMWF lingers this low in the vicinity of Hudson Bay through the period, while the GFS weakens the low and ejects it across eastern Canada Days 7-8. As a result of the differing evolutions of this low as depicted by the various models, corresponding differences are evident over the northern U.S. with respect to the upper pattern -- and thus the surface pattern as well. Therefore, predictability precludes any confident assessment of severe potential through middle and latter stages of the period. Meanwhile, on Day 4/Tuesday, and into Day 5, a series of subtle cyclonic disturbances -- embedded within fast westerly quasi-zonal flow over most of the CONUS -- will shift out of the Rockies and across central and eastern portions of the country. With a lee-side low over the central High Plains -- maintained by the westerlies aloft -- forecast to drift into the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity overnight, with a warm front arcing northeastward and then eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Capping associated with the eastward advection of an elevated mixed layer is expected across the southern Plains, which will likely limit warm-sector storms. However, in the vicinity of the warm front, afternoon convective development is expected, which will likely then be sustained through the evening as a southerly low-level jet develops. With moderate CAPE across the area, and 30 to 50 kt mid-level flow contributing to ample shear for organized/severe storms, a 15% area is being introduced at this time. Day 5/Wednesday, a continuation of at least some severe potential will likely shift eastward across the Mid Mississippi and into the Ohio Valley. However, evolving/increasing model differences with time precludes an areal highlight for Day 5, and onward through the end of the period. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC