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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, May 14, 2022

SPC May 14, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are expected Monday from eastern New York/western New England southward into the Southeast. Locally damaging winds and some hail will be the primary severe risks, though a tornado is also possible during the afternoon. ...Synopsis... A rather vigorous upper trough is forecast to sweep across the eastern U.S. Monday, along with a belt of strong cyclonic mid-level westerlies. Meanwhile upstream, a rather broad ridge will affect much of the western and central CONUS. At the surface, a cold front -- lying west of the Appalachians at the start of the period, will advance quickly eastward, cresting the mountains through midday, and then continuing steadily eastward to clear the New England and Middle Atlantic Coasts by the end of the period. ...Eastern New York/western New England southward into the Southeast... As a cold front shifts east of the higher terrain of the Appalachians during the day, diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will result in gradual warm-sector destabilization. As a result, expect a gradual increase in convection near and ahead of the advancing cold front. With a 60 to 70 kt cyclonic/westerly mid-level jet streak forecast to spread across the central Appalachians/New England, shear will favor organized/fast-moving storms, and attendant risk for locally damaging winds. Greatest risk will likely extend southward across Virginia, and then diminishing with southwestward extent across the Southeast where flow aloft will remain markedly weaker. Risk should also diminish as storms near the New England and Mid Atlantic Coasts, where cooler Atlantic low-level air should maintain a stable boundary layer. ..Goss.. 05/14/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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