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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, May 10, 2022

SPC May 10, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE COLOR ...SUMMARY... Well-organized severe storms are expected to evolve from the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota southward into the central Plains Thursday. Very large hail and damaging winds are expected, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to eject out of the Rockies and across the central and northern Plains Thursday, taking on increasingly negative tilt as it does. Meanwhile, a large upper-level cyclone will continue to drift westward, shifting into the southeastern states through the period. At the surface, a deepening low is progged to move northward across the Dakotas through the day, and then should rapidly occlude and shift northwestward overnight, eventually reaching southeastern Saskatchewan/southwestern Manitoba by the end of the period. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will cross the northern and central Plains through the afternoon and evening, to a position from the western Upper Great Lakes southwestward to western Texas by 13/12Z. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward to the southern High Plains... Steep lapse rates aloft atop a moist/diurnally heating boundary layer will result in strong destabilization across the northern and central Plains, within the warm sector of the evolving surface system. As a developing cold front advances eastward, strong ascent will help to weaken -- and eventually eliminate -- capping. This will lead to afternoon storm development near the front, along with an expansion of elevated storm coverage north of the warm front over northern portions of the outlook area. Initial storms should intensify rapidly given the degree of CAPE expected, and aided by favorably strong flow through a deep layer that will overspread the area in conjunction with the advancing upper system. Along with risk for very large hail, damaging winds an a couple of tornadoes can be expected during the afternoon with severe/supercell storms. Greatest risk will likely evolve from southeastern North Dakota and adjacent west-central Minnesota southward into eastern Nebraska, and then spread eastward with time as upscale storm growth likely results in an at least semi-continuous line of severe storms. While risk for large hail and a couple of tornadoes should continue well into the evening, potential for widespread damaging winds appears likely to increase with time presuming the anticipated/gradual evolution toward a more linear convective event. Farther south, across Kansas and western Oklahoma and into western Texas, storm coverage should be more limited, and severe risk somewhat more muted. Still, local risk for large hail and strong winds will exist with a few of the stronger afternoon and evening storms. ..Goss.. 05/10/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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