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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, May 9, 2022

SPC May 9, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon May 09 2022 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, damaging gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible over the upper Mississippi Valley region today into this evening. ...Discussion... Nudged 10-percent tornado probabilities to north of the IA/MN border and included a few counties north of MSP in the 10-percent tornado area (ENH categorical). ..Smith.. 05/09/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Mon May 09 2022/ ...Synopsis... Recent surface analysis placed a low over eastern SD, with a dryline extending south-southwestward across eastern NE, central KS, far western OK, and into the TX Permian Basin. A cold front also extends southwestward from this low across central NE, far northwest KS, and into southeast CO. This surface low is forecast to move northeastward throughout the day, reaching northwestern MN by the early afternoon and western Ontario by this evening. The attendant cold front is expected to sweep eastward, and by 00Z this front will likely extend southward from western Ontario across central MN and then back southwestward across IA into central KS. This front will act as the impetus for thunderstorms as it interacts with the moist and buoyant air mass across the Upper MS Valley. ...Upper MS Valley... Ongoing thunderstorm cluster moving across northern WI is expected to continue progressing northeastward for the next few hours. Downstream buoyancy will likely remain high enough for storm persistence, with at least some chance of isolated hail and/or damaging wind gusts reaching as far east as western portions of Upper MI. As the surface low mentioned in the synopsis moves northeastward, a moist low-level air mass will advect northward. As a result, low 70s dewpoints will likely be in place ahead of the approaching front across southern MN, with upper 60s dewpoints reaching into central MN. This low-level moisture combined with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s will result in strong instability across the region. Convective initiation appears likely as the front interacts with this buoyancy, although the warm temperatures aloft (possibly around -8 or -9 deg C at 500 mb this afternoon) and background rising heights could limit the overall coverage. Vertical shear will also be quite strong over the region, and the overall environment supports supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes, with any storms that do develop. Highest probabilities for supercells appears to be confined to a fairly limited spatial area centered over the southern MN/west-central WI border vicinity. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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