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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Tuesday, May 10, 2022

SPC May 10, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper low over southern parts of the Canadian Prairie, and a short-wave trough extending southward into the north-central U.S., will move slowly eastward Day 4, as a southeastern U.S. upper low moves northwestward. An associated cold front across the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Midwest and extending southwestward to the southern Plains will weaken with time, while a secondary front evolves/moves eastward across the northern Plains later in the day. While thunderstorms should develop along the initial/weakening front, from Wisconsin southwestward to Texas, relatively weak flow aloft suggests only local/low-end severe potential. Therefore, no risk areas will be included for Day 4. Day 5, as a spokes of short-wave energy/troughing rotate around the southern periphery of the slowly advancing Canadian low, the northwestward-moving low over the East will gradually become absorbed into broadening cyclonic flow around the Canadian low. Models differ somewhat with this overall evolution, and thus quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding cold frontal progression across the Great Lakes/Midwest, and with the details of the thermodynamic and kinematic environment in advance of the front. This uncertainty increases through Day 6, as solutions from the various global models diverge. Therefore, predictability decreasing steadily through middle and latter stages of the period precludes confident assessment of severe potential through the medium range. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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