Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An upper low over southern parts of the Canadian Prairie, and a
short-wave trough extending southward into the north-central U.S.,
will move slowly eastward Day 4, as a southeastern U.S. upper low
moves northwestward. An associated cold front across the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Upper Midwest and extending southwestward to the
southern Plains will weaken with time, while a secondary front
evolves/moves eastward across the northern Plains later in the day.
While thunderstorms should develop along the initial/weakening
front, from Wisconsin southwestward to Texas, relatively weak flow
aloft suggests only local/low-end severe potential. Therefore, no
risk areas will be included for Day 4.
Day 5, as a spokes of short-wave energy/troughing rotate around the
southern periphery of the slowly advancing Canadian low, the
northwestward-moving low over the East will gradually become
absorbed into broadening cyclonic flow around the Canadian low.
Models differ somewhat with this overall evolution, and thus quite a
bit of uncertainty exists regarding cold frontal progression across
the Great Lakes/Midwest, and with the details of the thermodynamic
and kinematic environment in advance of the front. This uncertainty
increases through Day 6, as solutions from the various global models
diverge. Therefore, predictability decreasing steadily through
middle and latter stages of the period precludes confident
assessment of severe potential through the medium range.
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