Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Sun May 01 2022
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the southern and
central High Plains on Wednesday, with strong moisture advection
occurring ahead of the system. In response, a moist airmass should
be in place by afternoon across the much of Oklahoma and Texas.
Thunderstorms are forecast to initiate to the east of a dryline in
the late afternoon, and then move eastward across the southern
Plains. Model forecasts show an unstable airmass in place by
afternoon, with moderate deep-layer shear over much of the southern
Plains. Severe storm development will be likely as storms increase
in coverage during the late afternoon and early evening. The
environment should support supercells with large hail, along with
wind damage and a few tornadoes. A 30 percent contour has been added
in the area where confidence is greatest concerning destabilization
and convective coverage.
On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the
Ozarks, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and
Arklatex. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass will be
in place. Thunderstorm development is expected during the day along
and ahead of the front. Although some differences are evident, model
forecasts generally agree that moderate instability and moderate to
strong deep-layer shear will exist ahead of the front Thursday
afternoon. Thunderstorms that form in areas that heat up the most
will have a chance to become organized and produced severe wind and
hail. For this reason, the 15 percent contour is maintained and
shifted to the east due to new runs which have a faster solution.
...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8...
On Friday and Saturday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move
eastward across the central U.S., as moisture return takes place
across the southern and central Plains. Model forecasts are very
different by Sunday with some solutions bringing the moist sector as
far north South Dakota. Others keep the most sector in the southern
Plains. This large discrepancy introduces a lot of uncertainty for
Friday and Saturday. If the more aggressive solutions pan out, then
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms would be possible on
Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of South Dakota and
Nebraska. A severe threat would again be possible on Sunday along
the corridor of strongest instability over eastern parts of the
Great Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. However, a
substantial amount of uncertainty continues into Sunday due to the
wide spread of model solutions.
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