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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, May 1, 2022

SPC May 1, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Sun May 01 2022 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday, with strong moisture advection occurring ahead of the system. In response, a moist airmass should be in place by afternoon across the much of Oklahoma and Texas. Thunderstorms are forecast to initiate to the east of a dryline in the late afternoon, and then move eastward across the southern Plains. Model forecasts show an unstable airmass in place by afternoon, with moderate deep-layer shear over much of the southern Plains. Severe storm development will be likely as storms increase in coverage during the late afternoon and early evening. The environment should support supercells with large hail, along with wind damage and a few tornadoes. A 30 percent contour has been added in the area where confidence is greatest concerning destabilization and convective coverage. On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Ozarks, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and Arklatex. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place. Thunderstorm development is expected during the day along and ahead of the front. Although some differences are evident, model forecasts generally agree that moderate instability and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will exist ahead of the front Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorms that form in areas that heat up the most will have a chance to become organized and produced severe wind and hail. For this reason, the 15 percent contour is maintained and shifted to the east due to new runs which have a faster solution. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... On Friday and Saturday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S., as moisture return takes place across the southern and central Plains. Model forecasts are very different by Sunday with some solutions bringing the moist sector as far north South Dakota. Others keep the most sector in the southern Plains. This large discrepancy introduces a lot of uncertainty for Friday and Saturday. If the more aggressive solutions pan out, then isolated strong to severe thunderstorms would be possible on Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. A severe threat would again be possible on Sunday along the corridor of strongest instability over eastern parts of the Great Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. However, a substantial amount of uncertainty continues into Sunday due to the wide spread of model solutions. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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