SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CDT Sun May 01 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
A severe threat will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Ohio
Valley southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Ozarks.
...Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valley/Ozarks...
An upper-level trough will move across the Ozarks on Tuesday as
west-southwesterly cyclonic mid-level flow remains over the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a moist and
unstable airmass spreads northeastward across the Ohio Valley.
MLCAPE is forecast to reach the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range across much
of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys by Tuesday afternoon. In
addition, a 45 to 55 knot mid-level jet will move across the region
creating moderate deep-layer shear. This combined with steep
low-level lapse rates will be favorable for severe storms capable of
producing wind damage. Supercells with isolated large hail could
also occur with cells that remain discrete. The main concern on
Tuesday is how convection in the morning will impact the airmass
later in the day. This could keep some areas more stable reducing
the severe threat. A slight risk has been placed where confidence is
the greatest concerning destabilization.
Further southwest across the mid Mississippi Valley and Ozarks, a
severe threat will also be possible Tuesday afternoon. Large scale
ascent will be considerably less with southwestward extent.
Deep-layer shear will also be weaker further southwest. These two
factors should keep any severe threat isolated and concentrated near
peak heating.
..Broyles.. 05/01/2022
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