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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, May 1, 2022

SPC May 1, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sun May 01 2022 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat will be possible on Tuesday from parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Ozarks. ...Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valley/Ozarks... An upper-level trough will move across the Ozarks on Tuesday as west-southwesterly cyclonic mid-level flow remains over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a moist and unstable airmass spreads northeastward across the Ohio Valley. MLCAPE is forecast to reach the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range across much of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys by Tuesday afternoon. In addition, a 45 to 55 knot mid-level jet will move across the region creating moderate deep-layer shear. This combined with steep low-level lapse rates will be favorable for severe storms capable of producing wind damage. Supercells with isolated large hail could also occur with cells that remain discrete. The main concern on Tuesday is how convection in the morning will impact the airmass later in the day. This could keep some areas more stable reducing the severe threat. A slight risk has been placed where confidence is the greatest concerning destabilization. Further southwest across the mid Mississippi Valley and Ozarks, a severe threat will also be possible Tuesday afternoon. Large scale ascent will be considerably less with southwestward extent. Deep-layer shear will also be weaker further southwest. These two factors should keep any severe threat isolated and concentrated near peak heating. ..Broyles.. 05/01/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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