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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, April 30, 2022

SPC Apr 30, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ARKANSAS TO ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon and evening across portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley/Midwest towards the Ark-La-Tex. A few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will be possible. ...AR to IL area this afternoon/evening... An occluded low near the northwest IA/southwest MN border will move slowly northeastward toward northwest WI by Sunday morning. To its south and east, a weakening cold front will move eastward across MO/IL and southeastward across AR the remainder of this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected through the remainder of the afternoon along and east of the front in the warm sector, where weak forcing for ascent coincides with minimal convective inhibition. Buoyancy and vertical shear profiles are sufficient for supercells from AR to IL, and the more favorable low-level shear profiles for rotating storms and couple of tornadoes will be near the northeast edge of the warm sector across northern IL. Otherwise, occasional damaging gusts and isolated large hail will be the main threats through late evening. ...Central TX area this afternoon/evening... The cold front is in the process of stalling across central TX. Ascent will remain shallow/weak and be confined to the front itself, and vertical shear is on the lower margins for supercells (somewhat stronger with westward extent across central TX). Thus, only isolated storm development is expected this afternoon/evening, but hodograph length and MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg with steep midlevel lapse rates will support isolated large hail with storms forming and propagating west-southwestward along the boundary. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with storm-boundary interactions. See MD #596 for additional information. ..Thompson.. 04/30/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1210 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022/ A deep occluded low is present today over IA, with the associated cold front sweeping eastward across MO/AR, and the warm front extending southeastward into parts of northern IL, IN, and eastern KY. The warm sector of the low is somewhat moist and marginally unstable with dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s. Visible satellite shows scattered breaks in the cloud cover, which will help to further warm/destabilize the air mass and lead to multiple bands of thunderstorms along/ahead of the front. ...WI/IL/IN... Backed surface winds will likely be maintained through the afternoon from southern IL northward into southern WI, where forecast soundings show sufficient low/deep layer shear profiles for discrete and semi-discrete convective modes. This would favor the development of a few supercells capable of hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factor for a more significant tornado event appears to be limited moisture/CAPE. These storms will spread quickly northeastward today into a progressively more stable environment, but locally damaging winds may continue to be a threat into western IN this evening. ...AR/LA/TX... Substantial low-level moisture is in place over the Arklatex region today with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop, with coverage decreasing with southwestern extent along the cold front. Low-level winds are more veered in this area than farther north, and mid-level flow decreases rapidly south of central AR. Nevertheless, strong multicell or isolated supercell storms may form, capable of damaging winds and hail through the evening. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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