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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, April 6, 2022

SPC Apr 6, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Wed Apr 06 2022 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing swaths of damaging gusts, severe hail, and several tornadoes are expected across a broad area from parts of the southern Appalachians into the southeastern U.S. this afternoon. ...Synopsis... A robust upper-level wave is noted in early-morning water vapor imagery over the northern CONUS. At the surface, an attendant surface low is beginning to occlude over the upper MS river valley. A progressive cold front arcing from the Midwest into the southern Plains will continue to sweep east/southeast over the next 24 hours. Ahead of this front, a diffuse warm front will advance north into the Great Lakes region by the late afternoon, establishing a broad warm sector from the Gulf Coast into the OH river valley. ...Middle TN into the OH River Valley... Ongoing thunderstorms along the cold front in the mid-MS valley will move into the middle TN/OH river valley through the day. Low-level moisture will gradually increase as the warm front mixes north. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s are expected as far north as northern KY ahead of the front and will support MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg. The upper-level jet streak overhead will support strong 50-60 knot effective bulk shear, and storm motions vectors near to just off the cold front may support a mix of supercells and bowing segments. Elongated hodographs in the 0-3 km layer will support a tornado threat with any discrete cells. ...Southern Appalachians into the Southeast... The cold front is expected to move across the lower MS valley through the morning hours. Morning inhibition and weaker forcing for ascent may limit storm coverage until the front reaches MS/AL around early afternoon when diurnal heating/mixing can overcoming lingering capping. Deep-layer shear will be more marginal compared to locations farther north, but 30-40 knot in the 1-2 km layer will still support a damaging wind threat with storms along the front. To the east across southeast AL and southern GA, guidance suggests an outflow boundary lingering from last night's MCS will lift through the region. Thunderstorms will likely develop along this boundary by late morning as inhibition erodes via insolation between cloud breaks and low-level warm advection. Forecast hodographs show mid to upper-level flow weakness, but low-level curvature will support 150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH across the region. This will support a tornado threat, especially during the early afternoon when isolated to scattered quasi-discrete supercells are most probable prior to gradual clustering. While CAM guidance shows the highest probabilities for convection across southeast AL into southern GA, the exact location of convective initiation remains somewhat uncertain. ..Moore/Smith.. 04/06/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC