SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL NORTH
CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected near the Carolina coast this
evening and in the Ozarks to lower Ohio Valley through tonight.
...Coastal Carolinas...
A mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Appalachians this
evening will continue northeastward to the VA/NC coast after
midnight as it weakens. A northward-advancing warm sector
immediately ahead of a thunderstorm cluster over southern NC will
conditionally support a risk for severe thunderstorm activity this
evening. Damaging gusts and a tornado are the main threats before
the storms move east of the coast into the western Atlantic by late
evening.
...Mid MS Valley/Ozarks/lower OH Valley...
An amplifying mid-level shortwave trough/closed low will move east
from the SD/NE/western IA vicinity to the MS Valley by late tonight.
Although low-level moisture is limited (lower 50s dewpoints near the
IA/MO/IL border to the lower 60s over northeast OK), strengthening
large-scale ascent will likely promote additional storms over the MS
Valley and into the Ozarks this evening. The stronger storms will
be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind and perhaps a tornado.
Recent model guidance indicates a convective line may evolve
overnight from AR/southeast MO east into the lower OH Valley. Have
expanded low-severe probabilities farther east to account for this
potential scenario.
..Smith.. 04/06/2022
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SN3GPD
