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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, April 6, 2022

SPC Apr 6, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Wed Apr 06 2022 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Sat-Sun... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low on Day 4/Sat. An upper trough will pivot eastward across the eastern U.S. toward the Atlantic Coast by Sunday morning. An upper ridge over the Plains will shift east as the western upper trough continues to dig southward across the region. Mainly dry and stable conditions will envelop much of the CONUS during this time. By Day 5/Sun, the western upper trough will continue to amplify, and a lee surface low/trough will develop over the central/southern High Plains in response. This will promote increasing southerly low-level flow across the southern Plains, transporting Gulf moisture northward. Deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain across south/central TX through Sunday night and capping will likely preclude thunderstorm development. ...Day 6-8/Mon-Wed -- Southern Plains to the Ozarks vicinity... By Day 6/Mon, the western upper trough will persist. A swath of increasing southwesterly mid/upper-level flow is forecast to spread east into the Plains as a subtle shortwave impulse ejects across the southern Rockies into the Plains. Higher-quality boundary-layer moisture will spread north into north TX, central/eastern OK and southeast KS to the east of a dryline. Strong heating along the dryline and increasing moisture should result in moderate destabilization amid a weakening cap. Isolated supercells are expected during the afternoon/evening across north TX into southeast KS. On Day 7/Tue, the western trough should begin to advance eastward, though there is still some differences among guidance in the timing of this eastward shift. Nevertheless, most guidance (ensemble, machine learning, and deterministic) indicate a similar scenario to Day 6/Mon evolving a bit further east across eastern OK/northeast TX into parts of the Ozarks. Southerly low-level flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward across the south-central U.S. into the Lower MO Valley amid a favorable deep-layer kinematic regime for organized severe storms. By Day 8/Wed, forecast guidance indicates the western trough will eject eastward into the Plains. Meanwhile a surface low and cold front are forecast to sweep eastward across the central/southern Plains toward the MS Valley. The large-scale pattern will generally support severe storms somewhere from the Plains toward the Mid/Lower MS Valley. However, guidance varies quite a bit in the timing and location of surface features, resulting in uncertainty in the exact location of greater severe potential. Severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks, but uncertainty is too great to introduce an area at this time for Day 8/Wed. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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