Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Wed Apr 06 2022
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-5/Sat-Sun...
Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low on Day 4/Sat. An upper
trough will pivot eastward across the eastern U.S. toward the
Atlantic Coast by Sunday morning. An upper ridge over the Plains
will shift east as the western upper trough continues to dig
southward across the region. Mainly dry and stable conditions will
envelop much of the CONUS during this time. By Day 5/Sun, the
western upper trough will continue to amplify, and a lee surface
low/trough will develop over the central/southern High Plains in
response. This will promote increasing southerly low-level flow
across the southern Plains, transporting Gulf moisture northward.
Deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain across south/central TX
through Sunday night and capping will likely preclude thunderstorm
development.
...Day 6-8/Mon-Wed -- Southern Plains to the Ozarks vicinity...
By Day 6/Mon, the western upper trough will persist. A swath of
increasing southwesterly mid/upper-level flow is forecast to spread
east into the Plains as a subtle shortwave impulse ejects across the
southern Rockies into the Plains. Higher-quality boundary-layer
moisture will spread north into north TX, central/eastern OK and
southeast KS to the east of a dryline. Strong heating along the
dryline and increasing moisture should result in moderate
destabilization amid a weakening cap. Isolated supercells are
expected during the afternoon/evening across north TX into southeast
KS.
On Day 7/Tue, the western trough should begin to advance eastward,
though there is still some differences among guidance in the timing
of this eastward shift. Nevertheless, most guidance (ensemble,
machine learning, and deterministic) indicate a similar scenario to
Day 6/Mon evolving a bit further east across eastern OK/northeast TX
into parts of the Ozarks. Southerly low-level flow will continue to
transport Gulf moisture northward across the south-central U.S. into
the Lower MO Valley amid a favorable deep-layer kinematic regime for
organized severe storms.
By Day 8/Wed, forecast guidance indicates the western trough will
eject eastward into the Plains. Meanwhile a surface low and cold
front are forecast to sweep eastward across the central/southern
Plains toward the MS Valley. The large-scale pattern will generally
support severe storms somewhere from the Plains toward the Mid/Lower
MS Valley. However, guidance varies quite a bit in the timing and
location of surface features, resulting in uncertainty in the exact
location of greater severe potential. Severe probabilities may be
needed in later outlooks, but uncertainty is too great to introduce
an area at this time for Day 8/Wed.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SN4FnF
