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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, April 5, 2022

SPC Apr 5, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue into late this afternoon into this evening across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas. A swath of damaging wind gusts and several tornadoes remain possible across the region, including the risk of a strong tornado. ...20Z Update... The primary change to the outlook is to trim severe probabilities in the wake of the extensive QLCS moving eastward across the Southeast. Otherwise, the previous reasoning remains valid. Scattered to widespread damaging wind gusts remain possible as the QLCS moves eastward, along with the potential for several tornadoes with embedded circulations and any supercells that can develop ahead of the line. A more isolated severe threat is still evident across south TX, where isolated supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible. See MCD 413 for more information regarding this threat. Isolated strong/locally severe thunderstorms are also possible this evening into late tonight across parts of the lower MO Valley into the Ozarks and northwest OK. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 04/05/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022/ ...Southern AL/FL Panhandle eastward to GA/SC Coast... Forward-propagating portion of the ongoing convective line continues to move across southern AL. Some supercellular development has been noted ahead of the line, but the lifespan of these cells has been limited but persistent low-level stability with northward extent. Linear portion of the line has accelerated over the past half hour and a pair of supercells preceding it have become better organized. This overall evolution, with a forward-propagating line preceded by discrete cells, is expected to continue as the system continues eastward into the destabilizing air mass downstream. Strong low-level flow will continue to support the threat for tornadoes, within the discrete warm-sector cells as well as within the convective line itself. A few strong tornadoes remain possible. As the line moves into GA, interaction with the baroclinic zone may act as a corridor for greater storm organization/increased severe potential within the line itself. This interaction will likely stretch into southern SC, and tornado/wind probabilities were increased over this region as a result. The gradient of surface-based buoyancy over the Carolinas will be quite sharp, with low-level stability expected to persist over most of NC. ...Northeast Oklahoma/Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is still expected late this afternoon and early evening across the region near a southeastward-advancing front. These storms are forecast to increase in coverage somewhat as they spread southeastward through the evening and early overnight. Buoyancy will be modest, especially with northern extent where less favorable low-level moisture exists, but somewhat richer moisture and increased instability will exist across the Ozark Plateau and northeast Oklahoma vicinity. Wind profiles will be conducive for some severe storms and a few supercells, but, given the advancing cold front, a predominantly linear storm mode is anticipated. Even so, isolated severe hail, damaging winds, and/or a brief tornado or two are all possible. ...South TX... Strong heating and modest low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will help foster moderate to strong instability across portion of south TX this afternoon. Increased low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low coupled with ascent attendant to the upper troughing draped across the region should interact with this instability to instigate convective initiation. While dry-air entrainment will likely temper updraft strength and longevity, a few more mature and robust updrafts are possible. High storm bases and steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to the potential for damaging downbursts. Additionally, moderate mid-level flow could also contribute to some updraft organization/rotation and resultant hail production. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC