SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue into late this
afternoon into this evening across parts of the Southeast and
Carolinas. A swath of damaging wind gusts and several tornadoes
remain possible across the region, including the risk of a strong
tornado.
...20Z Update...
The primary change to the outlook is to trim severe probabilities in
the wake of the extensive QLCS moving eastward across the Southeast.
Otherwise, the previous reasoning remains valid. Scattered to
widespread damaging wind gusts remain possible as the QLCS moves
eastward, along with the potential for several tornadoes with
embedded circulations and any supercells that can develop ahead of
the line.
A more isolated severe threat is still evident across south TX,
where isolated supercells capable of large hail and severe wind
gusts are possible. See MCD 413 for more information regarding this
threat. Isolated strong/locally severe thunderstorms are also
possible this evening into late tonight across parts of the lower MO
Valley into the Ozarks and northwest OK. See the previous discussion
below for more details.
..Dean.. 04/05/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022/
...Southern AL/FL Panhandle eastward to GA/SC Coast...
Forward-propagating portion of the ongoing convective line continues
to move across southern AL. Some supercellular development has been
noted ahead of the line, but the lifespan of these cells has been
limited but persistent low-level stability with northward extent.
Linear portion of the line has accelerated over the past half hour
and a pair of supercells preceding it have become better organized.
This overall evolution, with a forward-propagating line preceded by
discrete cells, is expected to continue as the system continues
eastward into the destabilizing air mass downstream. Strong
low-level flow will continue to support the threat for tornadoes,
within the discrete warm-sector cells as well as within the
convective line itself. A few strong tornadoes remain possible.
As the line moves into GA, interaction with the baroclinic zone may
act as a corridor for greater storm organization/increased severe
potential within the line itself. This interaction will likely
stretch into southern SC, and tornado/wind probabilities were
increased over this region as a result. The gradient of
surface-based buoyancy over the Carolinas will be quite sharp, with
low-level stability expected to persist over most of NC.
...Northeast Oklahoma/Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is still
expected late this afternoon and early evening across the region
near a southeastward-advancing front. These storms are forecast to
increase in coverage somewhat as they spread southeastward through
the evening and early overnight.
Buoyancy will be modest, especially with northern extent where less
favorable low-level moisture exists, but somewhat richer moisture
and increased instability will exist across the Ozark Plateau and
northeast Oklahoma vicinity. Wind profiles will be conducive for
some severe storms and a few supercells, but, given the advancing
cold front, a predominantly linear storm mode is anticipated. Even
so, isolated severe hail, damaging winds, and/or a brief tornado or
two are all possible.
...South TX...
Strong heating and modest low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level
lapse rates will help foster moderate to strong instability across
portion of south TX this afternoon. Increased low-level convergence
in the vicinity of a weak surface low coupled with ascent attendant
to the upper troughing draped across the region should interact with
this instability to instigate convective initiation. While dry-air
entrainment will likely temper updraft strength and longevity, a few
more mature and robust updrafts are possible. High storm bases and
steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to the potential for
damaging downbursts. Additionally, moderate mid-level flow could
also contribute to some updraft organization/rotation and resultant
hail production.
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