SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH
TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are forecast to spread from North Texas this afternoon
and evening, eastward toward the lower Mississippi Valley overnight.
Severe wind gusts, some possibly over 75 mph, large to very large
hail, and tornadoes are possible.
...Discussion...
Current evolution of new convection over western North Texas is in
line with expectations, lending confidence that the ongoing outlook
reasoning and areas remain reflective of the anticipated evolution
of the convective/severe risk. As such, no appreciable changes
appear necessary at this time.
..Goss.. 04/04/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022/
...Northwest/North TX late this afternoon into this evening...
Surface low currently over northwest TX is expected to gradually
deepen throughout the day as an attendant front pushes
southeastward. Moisture will continue to return ahead of the
low/front, likely bringing mid 60s dewpoints in North TX by early
this evening. Forcing for ascent near the low will be augmented by
large-scale lift attendant to approaching shortwave trough,
fostering convective initiation across northwest TX this afternoon.
Low-level to mid-level winds are not expected to be overly strong,
but notable veering with height and strong upper-level flow results
in overall profiles supportive of supercells. Given the linear
forcing and thermodynamic conditions favoring strong cold pools, a
quick transition into a convective line is anticipated. However,
there should be a window before this occurs for a more discrete
mode, with some potential for updrafts capable of all severe
hazards, including very large hail and a tornado or two.
...North/Northeast/East TX across LA into southern MS this evening
and overnight...
The initially more discrete mode expected over northwest TX
(discussed above) should quickly transition into an organized
convective line as both low-level moisture and low-level flow
increase ahead of it this evening. A warm front will be retreating
ahead of the line (demarcated relatively well by the 60 deg F
isodrosotherm), and a corridor of greater severe potential is
anticipated along and just south of this feature. The linear
convective mode/strong cold pool, coupled with continued large-scale
forcing for ascent and expected updraft/downdraft augmentation near
the warm front, suggests the potential for significant wind gusts
(i.e. 74+ mph) exists with this line.
The potential for embedded QLCS tornadoes also exists, particularly
later in the evening and overnight across northern LA and southwest
MS. The convective line should remain organized as it moves into
this region, and the low-level flow is expected to strengthen. These
factors combined with favorable low-level moisture suggest the
potential for embedded QLCS tornadoes may actually increase
overnight into early tomorrow morning from northern LA into
southwestern MS.
...Elsewhere in OK/TX...
Thunderstorms north of the outflow boundary and behind the front
today -- mainly over OK and northwest TX -- may produce sporadic,
marginally severe hail. Isolated severe thunderstorms developing
this evening over the Serranias del Burro of northern Coahuila also
may reach nearby parts of south TX, potentially producing large hail
and locally severe winds. The eastward progress of any such
convection crossing the Rio Grande will be limited by MLCINH related
to a combination of the basal EML inversion and nocturnal
near-surface cooling.
...FL Peninsula...
Remnant frontal boundary currently extending across the central FL
Peninsula is expected to further dilute throughout the day as
moisture returns northward. Moderate instability is anticipated
south of this retreating boundary as temperatures warm in to the
upper 70s/low 80s amid mid 60s dewpoints. Fairly steep mid-level
lapse rates will also be in place, fostered by relatively cold
mid-level temperatures (around -14 C at 500 mb). Primary forcing for
storm initiation will be sea breeze boundaries with effective
vertical shear around 20-30 kt favoring a multicellular storm mode.
Given the moderate buoyancy, a few stronger storms capable of
damaging downbursts and isolated hail may develop, especially as a
result of cell mergers/interactions.
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