SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN AL...NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE SC...FAR WESTERN NC
AND SOUTHEAST TN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing swaths of damaging gusts
and tornadoes are expected across a broad area from the Deep South
into the southern Appalachians on Wednesday. The greatest risk area
will encompass portions of central/northern Alabama into southeast
Tennessee, far western North Carolina/South Carolina and northern
Georgia.
...Deep South to the Southern Appalachians...
A closed upper low and its attendant trough will deep and shift east
from the Plains to the Upper Great Lakes/MS Valley on Wednesday.
This will maintain deep-layer southwesterly flow across the Gulf
Coast states into the Mid-Atlantic, resulting in a broad
warm-advection regime ahead of the trough. A strong low-level jet
around 40-50 kt will be somewhat more focused across parts of MS/AL
into the Carolinas ahead of a strong surface cold front. This
surface front is forecast to extend roughly from southeast MO into
east-central TX Wednesday morning, while a warm front extends from
the southern TN border into Upstate SC. The warm front should lift
north into NC and possibly southern VA late in the period while the
cold front sweeps eastward across the Mid-South and central Gulf
Coast.
A seasonally moist boundary layer will exist ahead of the surging
cold front, with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s across much
of the southern/southeastern U.S. This will aid in moderate
destabilization of a strongly sheared environment. Deep-layer flow
largely parallel to the surface cold front will support linear
convection, with another QLCS sweeping east across the southern U.S.
likely. A swath of damaging gusts will accompany organized
convection through the daytime across parts of MS/AL/TN/GA and into
the southern Appalachians, the Carolinas and southern GA/northern FL
during the evening/overnight. While damaging gusts appear the most
likely hazard at this time, tornado potential will exist as well,
both within the QLCS/mesovortices and in any semi-discrete
convection should it develop ahead of the line.
..Leitman.. 04/04/2022
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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