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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, April 30, 2022

SPC Apr 30, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... On Tuesday, a shortwave trough will move across the mid Mississippi Valley as a cold front advances southeastward across the southern Plains, Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Scattered thunderstorm development will take place along and ahead of the boundary Tuesday afternoon from the Arklatex northeastward into the Ohio Valley. The severe threat should remain very isolated over much of this area, except in the Ohio Valley where deep-layer shear is forecast be stronger. Wind damage will be possible in areas that destabilize the most, but uncertainty concerning spacing and instability is too great to add a threat area at this time. On Wednesday, an upper-level trough will move eastward across the Desert Southwest as flow remains cyclonic from the southwest in the southern Plains. Moisture advection will increase surface dewpoints into the lower to mid 60s F across much of central and north Texas into Oklahoma, where moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. By mid afternoon, thunderstorms should form to the east of a dryline oriented from western Oklahoma southward into northwest Texas. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear along with steep mid-level lapse rates will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. The more dominant supercells may produce tornadoes as the low-level jet strengthens across the southern Plains early Wednesday evening. A 15 percent contour is maintained across parts of the southern Plains for Wednesday. On Thursday, the upper-level trough moves eastward into the southern high Plains as a cold front advances southeastward across the south-central states. The models are not in agreement concerning the timing of the front but the current thinking is favoring the ECMWF solution. The scenario is similar to Wednesday with a corridor of moderate to strong instability in the southern Plains. Thunderstorms should develop during the mid to late afternoon to the east of a dryline and move eastward across the southern Plains. Strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for supercells with large hail. As the low-level jet ramps up during the late afternoon and early evening, tornadoes will also be possible with the more dominant supercells. A 15 percent contour is added to parts of the southern Plains for Thursday. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday and Saturday, the upper-level trough continues to move eastward across the south-central U.S. as a cold front advances slowly southeastward across the southern Plains, Arklatex and mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms, with some severe, will be possible both afternoons along and ahead of the front from parts of Texas eastward into the Gulf Coast states. However, model spread is substantial both Friday and Saturday, making predictability low concerning any specific threat area. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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