Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6...
On Tuesday, a shortwave trough will move across the mid Mississippi
Valley as a cold front advances southeastward across the southern
Plains, Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Scattered thunderstorm
development will take place along and ahead of the boundary Tuesday
afternoon from the Arklatex northeastward into the Ohio Valley. The
severe threat should remain very isolated over much of this area,
except in the Ohio Valley where deep-layer shear is forecast be
stronger. Wind damage will be possible in areas that destabilize the
most, but uncertainty concerning spacing and instability is too
great to add a threat area at this time.
On Wednesday, an upper-level trough will move eastward across the
Desert Southwest as flow remains cyclonic from the southwest in the
southern Plains. Moisture advection will increase surface dewpoints
into the lower to mid 60s F across much of central and north Texas
into Oklahoma, where moderate to strong instability is forecast to
develop by afternoon. By mid afternoon, thunderstorms should form to
the east of a dryline oriented from western Oklahoma southward into
northwest Texas. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear along with
steep mid-level lapse rates will be very favorable for supercells
with large hail. The more dominant supercells may produce tornadoes
as the low-level jet strengthens across the southern Plains early
Wednesday evening. A 15 percent contour is maintained across parts
of the southern Plains for Wednesday.
On Thursday, the upper-level trough moves eastward into the southern
high Plains as a cold front advances southeastward across the
south-central states. The models are not in agreement concerning the
timing of the front but the current thinking is favoring the ECMWF
solution. The scenario is similar to Wednesday with a corridor of
moderate to strong instability in the southern Plains. Thunderstorms
should develop during the mid to late afternoon to the east of a
dryline and move eastward across the southern Plains. Strong
deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will be favorable
for supercells with large hail. As the low-level jet ramps up during
the late afternoon and early evening, tornadoes will also be
possible with the more dominant supercells. A 15 percent contour is
added to parts of the southern Plains for Thursday.
...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8...
On Friday and Saturday, the upper-level trough continues to move
eastward across the south-central U.S. as a cold front advances
slowly southeastward across the southern Plains, Arklatex and mid
Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms, with some severe, will be
possible both afternoons along and ahead of the front from parts of
Texas eastward into the Gulf Coast states. However, model spread is
substantial both Friday and Saturday, making predictability low
concerning any specific threat area.
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